Support Ukraine

May 31 2023 The Washington Post

This is the ‘America First’ case for supporting Ukraine

According to a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll conducted in March 60 percent majority of Republicans say we should stand with Ukraine until Russia is defeated. And GOP support is softening.

My question here is: ONLY 60%?

Sorry GOP, but to use the appropriate American saying, wake up and smell the coffee.

No point in reprinting the whole piece here, I’ll just mention the main points:

1 Russian victory would embolden U.S. enemies

2 A Ukrainian victory will help deter China

3 Defeating Putin would weaken the Sino-Russian partnership

4 Support for Ukraine will restore the Reagan Doctrine

5 Victory will save the U.S. billions

6 A proving ground for new weapons

7 Arming Ukraine is revitalizing our defense industrial base

8 The Russian invasion has strengthened U.S. alliances

9 Victory helps prevent nuclear proliferation

10 Victory in Ukraine is achievable

More arms to Ukraine

Apr 17 2023 The Guardian

It is good to know that I am not the only one who thinks Ukraine should get more arms.

This piece is by Simon McDonald, Christoph Heusgen, Stéphane Abrial, Jim Jones and Stefano Stefanini. And it begins with:

We are diplomatic and military experts from across Europe. And we say give Ukrainians more arms, or risk a terrible stalemate

Freedom needs to be better supplied than tyranny. If democracies stand firm, Putin’s war on Ukraine will fail

Eastern Ukraine

Apr 6 2023 The New York Times

How Russia’s Offensive Ran Aground

A snapshot of the situation on the front in Eastern Ukraine, in early April 2023. Includes a timeline from the start of the war.

*****

Huge losses, with little to show for.

Putin’s Energy Offensive

Apr 6 2023 The New York Times

Putin’s Energy Offensive Has Failed by Paul Krugman

*****

The Russian “special operation” in Ukraine is not exactly going according to plan.

The initial attempt to capture Kyiv in a blitzkrieg operation, turned into a defeat, and resulted in huge losses.

After a good start, the operation to capture eastern Ukraine also stalled; the Ukrainians fought well and by this time had acquired western weapons.

The Ukrainian counterattacks in the east and south managed to recapture territory, pushed the Russians back, and recaptured Lyman in the East and Kherson in the south.

The ongoing offensive in Bakhmut… staggering losses for little gains… yet another strategic failure.

The ‘energy war’, weaponizing energy and cutting off the supplies of natural gas, did not manage to bring Europe to its knees. On the contrary, Europeans managed to find enough other sources of energy, the sanctions are piling up, and Ukraine is getting western tanks. North Macedonia has donated Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets, and Poland and Slovakia are sending Mig-29s as well.

One of Putin’s reasons for the ‘special operation’ was preventing the expansion of Nato. Sweden and Finland, the historically non-aligned and neutral Nordic countries, applied for Nato membership in May 2022, and Finland joined the alliance on April 4th 2023, and Sweden is expected to follow soon.

*****

Maybe it would have gone better if Putin had remembered Helmuth von Moltke’s old truth about war,

“No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy”

Back to the glory days of WWII

Apr 4 2023 The Guardian

Putin doesn’t want the war to end – he wants to blast us back to the 40s Soviet era

Georgi Gospodinov is the author of Time Shelter, which has been longlisted for the 2023 Booker International prize.

“What Putin wants is not to win this war, but to make it chronic, to force us all to live in that regime. His goal is to bombard and raze the present (and the future) with all its infrastructure and everydayness – so that there is no water, no warmth, no light. To destroy everyday life, and from there existence as well, to literally an-nihil-ate the Ukrainian nation.

An aggressive project to revive the past, especially an unprocessed, forgotten or rewritten past, is the perfect breeding ground for populism and nationalism. We saw this under Trump, and now it is coming true in an even more sinister guise under Putin.”

Finland joins NATO

April 4th 2023

One of Putin’s declared reasons for invading Ukraine, was preventing the enlargement of NATO.

Well, today Finland officially joined NATO, and Sweden will do so soon.

*****

It is a major understatement to call the war a strategic blunder for Russia.

Letter to an unknown Ukrainian

Apr 2 2023 The Guardian

“My country has fallen out of time”

“My dearest one,
They stole the language from us. We spoke and corresponded with you in the language of great Russian literature. Now, for the whole world, Russian is the language of those who bomb Ukrainian cities and kill children, the language of war criminals, the language of murderers. They will be tried for crimes against humanity. I would like to believe that all those who prepared and participated in this war, who supported it in one way or another, will be put in the dock. But how can one go to trial for a crime against language?” . . .

‘My country has fallen out of time’: Russian author Mikhail Shishkin’s letter to an unknown Ukrainian

*****

“The main enemy of Russian culture is the Russian regime”

Interview - Mikhail Shishkin: ‘The main enemy of Russian culture is the Russian regime’

“Mikhail Shishkin was born in Moscow and is one of the most lauded writers in contemporary Russian literature, and the only one to receive all three of Russia’s most prestigious literary awards. An outspoken critic of Vladimir Putin and what he calls his “criminal regime”, he has lived in exile in Switzerland since 1995. In My Russia: War Or Peace?, his most recent book to be translated into English, he surveys the violent contours of Russia history and examines the troubled relationship between the Russian state and its citizens.”

Ukraine - hard choices

Apr 10 2022 The Guardian

The Observer editorial presents some hard choices for western leaders.

First, create a safe haven in western Ukraine, and inform Russia in advance of the location, and that it will be protected.

Second, declare city of Odesa off-limits.

Third, tell Russia that artillery and missile units that fire on civilians again, as in Kramatorsk, they will be deemed legitimate Nato military targets.

Fourth: supply fighter planes and tanks to Kyiv.

Fifth: block all Russian fossil fuel exports.

These may seem like radical choices, but if the alternative is the continuing slaughter of civilians, what choice is there, really?

The Observer view on the west’s response to war in Ukraine

Ukraine: Cancel foreign debt

Mar 28th 2022

Ukraine’s economy minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, said that the war has cost $564.9bn. This includes damaged infrastructure, lost economic growth, etc., and the cost will keep rising as the war goes on.

Already, about eight thousand kilometres of roads, and 10m square metres of housing have been destroyed or damaged. To put the numbers into context, eight thousand kilometres is roughly equal to the distance from Washington D.C. to Los Angeles and back. And 10m square metres is equal to 1.400 football (= soccer) fields.

On top of this, Ukraine has $129bn foreign debt. That is nearly 80% of GDP, and would be a crippling amount of debt for Ukraine, even without the ongoing war. But the damage from the war is already more than four times the debt, and since the war is not likely to end tomorrow, the damage will be much worse when this is over.

Cancelling the foreign debt would not end the war, but it would be a good way for the international community to show solidarity to Ukraine. $129bn is not a lot of money for the international community, but it is a lot for Ukraine.

Besides, I think it is a bit weird to give aid with one hand and collect debt, with interest, with the other. But maybe it is just me…

There’s an easy way to help Ukraine without military escalation: cancel its foreign debt

Short War - Long Peace

Mar 16th 2022

Three weeks, or eight years, into the war in Ukraine.

The war has only lasted for three weeks, but it seems like an eternity. Three short weeks, three million refugees, and untold numbers of internally displaced. Thousands dead and thousands more injured. Cities reduced to rubble; homes, schools, hospitals, day care centres destroyed.

The world has changed, for Ukraine, for Europe, for the World, and for Russia. Just three weeks.

Then again this conflict already started eight years ago, when Russia annexed Crimea. It has just been slowly simmering in the background since then, and now Russia decided it is time to finish the job.

As the shelling continues, negotiations are ongoing, and may result in a ceasefire in the near future. In the meantime, there will be more casualties and more destruction, on both sides. For how long, no-one knows.

European countries are rethinking their military and energy strategy, and Europe has not been this united in a very long time. Russia, on the other hand, is already isolated, its economy is heading for deep recession, and more and more sanctions are piling up.

Even if this war ends today, the sanctions are not going to be lifted for some time, and Russia will remain isolated and sanctioned for the foreseeable future.

But, regardless of how this war ends, one thing is already clear, Russia has already lost Ukraine and Ukrainians. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it well in an address yesterday; “Because every shot at Ukraine, every blow at Ukraine are steps towards Russia's self-destruction. Steps to self-isolation, poverty and degradation.”

The war will end one day, but the Ukrainians will not forget their fallen; fathers, brothers, wives, children, grandparents, friends. They will be remembered, and for a very long time, in Zelenskyy’s words: “Eternal memory to everyone who died for Ukraine! Eternal curse to the enemy who took thousands of lives.”

There will be peace, but as Yitzhak Rabin said: “You don't make peace with friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies.” Russia has become that ‘very unsavory enemy’ for Ukraine, and the question is, what will peace be like, with a neighbour like that.

There will be visible scars in Ukraine for a long time, to remind people of what happened. Destroyed cities will take a long time to rebuild, and some skeletons of structures will probably not be rebuilt, but left as they are, and will become war memorials. They will become part of the fabric of the cities, just like the war will become part of the collective memory of the country.

There will be peace, but underlying that peace there will be the stories of the fallen, the absence of the missing, and the lost lives of the unborn. In a few years, a child will ask ‘where is my father’, thirty years from now, another child will ask what happened to my grandfather, and seventy years from now, grandchildren will hear stories of the war, from grandparents who experienced it as children.

In the year 2122, when anyone reading this will be long gone, you can be sure, there will still be candles lit for the fallen in the churches and war memorials of Ukraine.

That will be part of the long legacy of a hopefully short war.

Ukraine - the Endgame

Mar 16th 2022 BBC

BBC World Affairs editor John Simpson writes about the endgame for the Ukraine war.

Ukraine: Putin will search for a way to save face

A few quotes below.

Even the worst war comes to an end. Sometimes, as in 1945, the only outcome is a fight to the death. Mostly, though, wars end in a deal which doesn't satisfy anyone entirely, but at least brings the bloodshed to an end.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin the search is on for ways of saving face. Ukraine's President Zelensky has already shown remarkable skill as a diplomat, and he's clearly willing to say and do whatever is acceptable to himself and his people in order to get Russia off his country's back.

For him, there's one overriding objective - to make sure that Ukraine comes out of this appalling experience a united, independent country, not a province of Russia, which is what President Putin originally seemed to think he could turn it into.

For President Putin, all that counts now is that he can declare victory. No matter that everyone in his entire administration will understand that Russia has been given a bloody nose in this unnecessary invasion. No matter that the 20% or so of Russians who understand what's really going on in the world will know that Putin has bet the house on a fantasy of his own devising, and lost.

Olena Zelenska: An Open Letter to the Global Media

Mar 8th 2022 Official website of the President of Ukraine

This is by Olena Zelenska, The First Lady of Ukraine, and here is the link to the original text.

I will include the whole text here, just in case the original website becomes unreachable, which is definitely a possibility in this war. The website being the website of the President of Ukraine: www.president.gov.ua/en

* * * * *

I Testify

An Open Letter to the Global Media
by Olena Zelenska, The First Lady of Ukraine

Recently, an overwhelming number of media outlets from around the world have reached out with requests for interviews. This letter serves as my answer to these requests and is my testimony from Ukraine.

What happened just over a week ago was impossible to believe. Our country was peaceful; our cities, towns, and villages were full of life.

On February 24th, we all woke up to the announcement of a Russian invasion. Tanks crossed the Ukrainian border, planes entered our airspace, missile launchers surrounded our cities.

Despite assurances from Kremlin-backed propaganda outlets, who call this a "special operation" - it is, in fact, the mass murder of Ukrainian civilians.

Perhaps the most terrifying and devastating of this invasion are the child casualties. Eight-year-old Alice who died on the streets of Okhtyrka while her grandfather tried to protect her. Or Polina from Kyiv, who died in the shelling with her parents. 14-year-old Arseniy was hit in the head by wreckage, and could not be saved because an ambulance could not get to him on time because of intense fires.

When Russia says that it is 'not waging war against civilians,' I call out the names of these murdered children first.

Our women and children now live in bomb shelters and basements. You have most likely all seen these images from Kyiv and Kharkiv metro stations, where people lie on the floors with their children and pets – trapped beneath. These are just consequences of war for some, for Ukrainians it now a horrific reality. In some cities families cannot get out of the bomb shelters for several days in a row because of the indiscriminate and deliberate bombing and shelling of civilian infrastructure.

The first newborn of the war, saw the concrete ceiling of the basement, their first breath was the acrid air of the underground, and they were greeted by a community trapped and terrorized. At this point, there are several dozen children who have never known peace in their lives.

This war is being waged against the civilian population, and not just through shelling.

Some people require intensive care and continuous treatment, which they cannot receive now. How easy is it to inject insulin in the basement? Or to get asthma medication under heavy fire? Not to mention the thousands of cancer patients whose essential access to chemotherapy and radiation treatment have now been indefinitely delayed.

Local communities on social media are full of despair. Many people, including the elderly, severely ill and those with disabilities, have been debilitatingly cut off, ending up far from their families and without any support. War against these innocent people is a double crime.

Our roads are flooded with refugees. Look into the eyes of these tired women and children who carry with them the pain and heartache of leaving loved ones and life as they knew it behind. The men bringing them to the borders shedding tears to break apart their families, but bravely returning to fight for our freedom. After all, despite all this horror, Ukrainians do not give up.

The aggressor, Putin, thought that he would unleash blitzkrieg on Ukraine. But he underestimated our country, our people, and their patriotism. Ukrainians, regardless of political views, native language, beliefs, and nationalities, stand in unparalleled unity.

While Kremlin propagandists bragged that Ukrainians would welcome them with flowers as saviors, they have been shunned with Molotov cocktails.

I thank the citizens of the attacked cities, who have coordinated to help those in need. Those that keep working - in pharmacies, stores, public transportation, and social services – showing that in Ukraine, life wins.

I acknowledge those that have provided humanitarian aid to our citizens and thank you for your continued support. And to our neighbors who have generously opened their borders to provide shelter for our women and children, thank you for keeping them safe, when the aggressor has rendered us unable to do so.

To all the people around the world who are rallying to support Ukraine. We see you! We’re here watching and appreciate your support.

Ukraine wants peace. But Ukraine will defend its borders. Defend its identity. These it will never yield.

In cities where shelling persists, where people find themselves under debris, unable to get out of basements for days, we need safe corridors for humanitarian aid and evacuation of civilians to safety. We need those in power to close our sky!

Close the sky, and we will manage the war on the ground ourselves.

I appeal to you, dear media: keep showing what is happening here and keep showing the truth. In the information war waged by the Russian Federation, every piece of evidence is crucial.

And with this letter, I testify and tell the world: the war in Ukraine is not a war "somewhere out there." This is a war in Europe, close to the EU borders. Ukraine is stopping the force that may aggressively enter your cities tomorrow under the pretext of saving civilians.

Last week to me and my people, this would have seemed like an exaggeration, but it is the reality we’re living in today. And we do not know how long it will last. If we don't stop Putin, who threatens to start a nuclear war, there will be no safe place in the world for any of us.

We will win. Because of our unity. Unity towards love for Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Potemkin army fighting a war of choice

Mar 8th 2022

Two good articles about the Ukraine war in The New York Times by Paul Krugman.

Nearly two weeks into the Russian Blitzkrieg, the general consensus, in the west that is, seems to be that the war is not exactly going according to the plan. Von Moltke’s old maxim, “no battle plan survives contact with the enemy”, has been proven right, yet again.

Ukraine did not fold like a house of cards, on the contrary the resistance has been fierce. And the EU, US, UK and other democratic governments united in opposition to the war with remarkable speed, and came up with harsh sanctions. Not what anyone was expecting to happen just two weeks ago.

Russia may still win battles and be able to occupy a lot of Ukrainian territory, but in the long run, it looks like they have already lost the war. It may take a long time, but the longer it takes, the worse the effects of the sanctions will be. And as this war drags on, more Russian soldiers will die, be wounded or end up as POWs, and I can not imagine that being a very good way to shore up support for the war back home in Russia.

Also the war has been the main story in the international media from day one, and will probably remain so for as long as the war goes on. If nothing else, the millions of Ukrainian refugees in Europe will keep the war on the front pages for a long time. It is true that Russia is trying to isolate itself from the western media, but some information will always filter through, one way or another.

Ukraine is being destroyed, and will need massive amounts of aid for a long time, but with the imposed sanctions the Russian economy is also collapsing, and aid to Russia is not exactly a very popular idea at the moment.

Though the economic collapse may take some time, the end result will not be very popular on the streets of Russian cities and villages, and that will eventually create more opposition to this war of choice.

Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower Feb 28th 2022

Why China Can’t Bail Out Putin’s Economy Mar 7th 2022

“We Will Fight to the Last Breath”

Mar 2nd The New York Times

Andriy Yermak, the head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine, writes in The NY Times.

I’m Writing From a Bunker With President Zelensky Beside Me. We Will Fight to the Last Breath.

A few quotes from the piece:

“In launching a war on our country, President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia would “de-Nazify” and free Ukraine. But Ukraine — a nation that lost as many as eight million lives in World War II, a country that has a Jewish president — does not need to be freed from the liberated path it has chosen.

Not since the end of World War II has Europe seen violence and naked territorial ambition at such a scale.

I am writing this appeal from a bunker in the capital, with President Volodymyr Zelensky by my side. For a week, Russian bombs have fallen overhead. Despite the constant barrage of Russian fire, we stand firm and united in our resolve to defeat the invaders. We will fight to the last breath to protect our country.”

“Every day brings the possibility that our words may be our final ones. So let them be a plea for support for a free Ukraine.”

“Standing with us today and helping us is the only way to achieve peace for all and ensure that history does not repeat itself — so that our future does not echo Europe’s darkest time.”

The only thing I would add to this piece is: Slava Ukraini!

Russia-Ukraine war

On February 24th 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine, and escalated the war which they started in 2014, when they occupied the Crimea and parts of the Donbas.

The invasion, or as the Russians call it “the special military operation”, did not go exactly according to plan. The Ukrainian resistance was much stiffer than anyone expected, and the Russian military was overconfident and their tactics were not up to the task.

So, here we are, war in Europe again, and refugees pouring over the borders.