Old Global Order Is Over

Feb 24 2025 The Guardian

There is a clear Trump doctrine. Those who can’t see it won’t have a say in reshaping the world

The sooner the US’s former friends realise the old global order is over, the sooner they can organise to regain power and agency.

… a Trump doctrine is emerging, most sharply in foreign policy. It has clear features, contours and a sort of unified theory of conflict. First, it is transactional, particularly when it comes to warfare in which the US is playing a role. Nothing has a history or any objective sense of right and wrong. Time starts with Trump, and his role is to end things, ideally while securing some bonus for the US.

That upside is the second feature of the Trump doctrine: financialisation, or the reduction of politics to how much things cost, what is the return and how it can be maximised.

… From the Gaza war, some sort of real estate deal can be salvaged. In Ukraine, a proposal for almost four times the value of US assistance so far in minerals is like the stripping of a distressed company by a new investment manager trying to recoup the funds disbursed by predecessors.

The third feature is the junking of any notions of “soft power” – something that is seen as expensive, with questionable benefits that are abstract and unquantifiable.

… Where others saw soft power, Trump sees quagmires.

To Fight or Not to Fight

Feb 7 2025 The Washington Post

Democrats, don’t save Trump from himself

Informative piece, and starts with listing all the laws the new administration has managed to violate in under three weeks.

What follows are the many ways Republicans are doing nothing about what “… has been the advent calendar of illegality,” as Norman Eisen puts it.

*****

The Republicans have the votes to run the country, let them.

Unsurprisingly I agree with this piece, and my advice to Democrats is not to fight this fight. Let the Republicans govern, and decide, and own, and be responsible for what they do. And above all, sit this one out, and do not help them.

Let the voters give their verdict.

*****

The spineless Republicans who do nothing about this, remind me of those who were called Mitläufer after WWII in West Germany. For those who do not speak German, the word translates to follower, a fellow-traveller, or a tag-along.

One definition of a Mitläufer is:

A person who was not charged with crimes but whose involvement with the Party was considered so significant that they could not be exonerated for the crimes of the Regime.

I think you know what Party and Regime that refers to.

Tech for Dictators

Feb 3 2025 The Washington Post

This is by Vladimir Kara-Murza, Yulia Navalnaya and Ilya Yashin

-Vladimir Kara-Murza is a contributing columnist at the Washington Post. A Russian politician, author and historian, he was imprisoned in Russia from April 2022 until August 2024 for speaking out against the war on Ukraine.
-Yulia Navalnaya is a Russian opposition politician and the widow of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
-Ilya Yashin is a Russian opposition politician.

They do know what they are talking about, they have first hand experience from Russia.

*****

We’re Russian. We know what happens when Big Tech coddles dictators.

Big tech companies operate globally, and try to serve as many people as possible. Obviously, that is their business model. And they obviously follow the laws of countries they operate in, not following laws is bad for business.

But what happens when the local laws they follow, clearly are immoral or illegal by international standards? Do you follow the local laws even if they restrict the rights or the freedom of speech of the population of the country?

Corporate lawyers, from the safety of the boardrooms in the West, will tell you that you must follow the laws, a law is a law. End of discussion.

Kara-Murza, Navalnaya and Yashin, argue that there is room for discussion, and they propose an alternative path. Instead of blindly following the local laws, whatever they are, they propose three simple principles.

Principle 1: Put human rights first.

Principle 2: Focus on real-world outcomes.

Principle 3: Establish mechanisms for dialogue with civil society.

Yes, you may lose some business in some countries run by dictators, but your customers in democracies are free to dump your tech, they have other options. They can start to vote with their feet, if your tech helps dictators repress their populations.

Technology is just technology, it can be used for good or for bad. But if that technology is yours you will have control over how it will be used. The choice is yours.

If you run a big tech company that aims to be in business for the long term, my suggestion would be to take the long term strategic view, and, if you have to, sacrifice some short term gains in the process.

After all, in the end, it does make a lot of business sense to end up on the right side of history.

Jan 6, 2025

Jan 6 2025 Updated Jan 7

Four years ago today, the certification of the US election results was (to put it mildly) interrupted, by a mob that stormed the US Capitol.

To call a spade a spade, it was an insurrection.

In the end, the results were certified and power was transferred; democracy prevailed.

A lot has been written about this, by much better informed people than me; no point in me writing another post about it.

So, instead, below are three opinion pieces, two from the Washington Post and one from The New York Times. (And one more from Jan 7.)

Joe Biden: What Americans should remember about Jan. 6

We should never forget it is our democracy that makes everything possible — our freedoms, our rights, our liberties, our dreams. And that it falls to every generation of Americans to defend and protect it.

Does a new report justify Jan. 6 pardons? In fact, it does the opposite.

Democracy endures in spite of, not because of, the chaotic attempt to overturn the will of the people four years ago.

For Many of Us, Jan. 6 Never Ended

For my efforts doing my duty as a Capitol Police sergeant, I was beaten and struck by raging rioters all over my body with multiple weapons until I was covered in my own blood. My hand, foot and shoulder were wounded. I thought I was going to die and never make it home to see my wife and young son.

*****

Jan 7 2025

Why we should remember Jan. 6, 2025

No angry and deluded mob stormed the U.S. Capitol Monday. There was no violent invasion, no bludgeoning of police officers, no shocking vandalism, no mortal threat to members of Congress and the vice president. Nothing particularly newsworthy happened — which qualifies as very big news indeed.

Not a Time for Isolationism

Dec 13 2024 The New York Times

The First New Foreign Policy Challenge for Trump Just Became Clear

Thomas L. Friedman on Syria.

Memo to the secretary of state-designate, Marco Rubio: You may not realize it yet, but if confirmed, your first big challenge as President Donald Trump’s top diplomat may be to persuade him to abandon all of the isolationist-America-First-not-sure-we-want-to-stay-in-NATO-who-needs-allies-who-cares-about-“shithole”-countries rhetoric that Trump is known for, so you can help with — dare I say it — nation-building in Syria.

Immigrants Poisoning the Blood

Nov 13th 2023 The New York Times

No, Immigrants Aren’t ‘Poisoning the Blood of Our Country’

This is by Paul Krugman, and I do not really have anything to add to his arguments, after all he knows much more about the US economy than I do.

*****

I’ll just raise a few points that this piece brought to mind.

Here is a short quiz:

Question 1: Who said “poisoning the blood”:
Donald Trump or Adolf Hitler?
-The right answer is, of course, Trump, Hitler said it in German.

Question 2: Who used the term “vermin” to describe people he did not like:
Donald Trump or the Hutu paramilitary during the Rwandan genocide?
-Trump again, the Hutus used the term “cockroach”.

Question 3: Who described his political opposition as “enemies of the people”:
Donald Trump or Joseph Stalin?
-This was a trick question, the right answer is: both of them.

The day free-market Republicans became Soviet economic planners

May 12 2023 The Washington Post

The day free-market Republicans became Soviet economic planners

This very entertaining piece by Dana Milbank, is another example of Mark Twain’s “Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't.”

This covers, among other things;

-The House Oversight Committee, run by Republicans, denouncing capitalist asset managers;
-a Democrat defending the free market against a Republican legislature;
-Republicans in the Oversight Committee in a press conference revealing nothing;
-the George Santos indictment and his vote for The Protecting Taxpayers and Victims of Unemployment Fraud Act;
-the Debt Ceiling charade;
-and of course the DeSantis, Trump and McCarthy.

*****

And this is The Washington Post, not late night comedy.

When Trump was in the White House, we all learned that truth can be funnier than fiction, I just naively thought that those golden days for comedy writers were over.

My bad, I was wrong.

“Artificial” Intelligence

May 2 2023 The New York Times

Geoffrey Hinton was an artificial intelligence pioneer, but he quit Google and joined a growing chorus of critics who say we are racing toward danger with A.I.

‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead

Dr. Hinton said he has quit his job at Google, where he has worked for more than a decade and became one of the most respected voices in the field, so he can freely speak out about the risks of A.I. A part of him, he said, now regrets his life’s work.

“I console myself with the normal excuse: If I hadn’t done it, somebody else would have.”

“It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things.”

Pick Your Battles

Apr 8 2023 - Updated Apr 18 and again Apr 26

Ukraine is fighting the Russian invasion.

Ukrainians are fighting for independence, for survival, and for the freedom to decide the future direction of their country themselves.

Russians are fighting for the imaginary Glory Days of the past, the resurrection of the Soviet Union, or something resembling the long gone Imperial Russia. A place in the Sun in the World Stage.

Palestinians and Israelis are continuing their decades old conflict, with rockets, raids and other deadly attacks.

There are too many people on both sides, who cannot let go of the grievances of the past, and too few people who can rise above the fray, and make the necessary compromises needed for a peaceful future for the region.

The Chinese military is rehearsing the encirclement of Taiwan.

China is still fighting the revolutionary civil war they won in 1949. They see Taiwan as a threat to their rule; if Taiwan can be prosperous without their communist rule, why not the mainland?

North Korea continues to test missiles and develop nuclear weapons.

The Kim regime knows they will not stay in power, or alive for that matter, in a democratic system like the one in South Korea. Internally they need an external enemy to unite the country behind the Supreme Commander, and externally, they need a credible threat of death and destruction, for the outside world not to attack them.

The Taliban are banning women from work and education, and in general from the public visible part of society. They do not like music, unless it is religious, and foreign TV-shows, that violate their interpretation of Sharia Law, are banned.

They are essentially at war with modernity, and want to return to an imaginary place and time that never existed, at least not outside their imagination.

And Sudan is descending into an all out civil war…

*****

Meanwhile, back at the ranch…

Republicans are banning, among other things, books, classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity, (pornographic) classical art, drag performances in public places, and of course, abortion.

And Ron DeSantis is at war with Mickey Mouse.
Well, not really, just Disney.

Florida's Ron DeSantis threatens Disney with tolls and taxes

“Who's the leader of the club that's made for you and me?
R-O-N D-E-S A-N-T-I-S!”

*****

Apr 18 2023 The Guardian - Update

And while areas of south Florida are still underwater from last week’s floods, the Florida governor, following in the footsteps of the freedom loving Jedis, is continuing his courageous fight against the Evil Empire, creating “more Disney drama” in a “truly unhinged display of ego”.

OK, I made up the Evil Empire part, but the quotes are, respectively, from State representative Anna Eskamani, and Brandon Wolf, the press secretary for Equality Florida.

Ron DeSantis threatens prison near Disney theme park in latest retaliation

*****

Apr 26 2023 The Guardian - Update, again

This is turning into a major Saga.

Disney sues Ron DeSantis in battle over control of Florida resort

Disney sued the Florida governor, saying he had subjected it to “a targeted campaign of government retaliation”.

I wonder if the next episode will include Mickey Mouse and Ron DeSantis in a fist fight.

I could have named this post “Of Mice and Men”, but sadly the title is already taken.

Promoters of Paranoia

Apr 20 2023

You probably already know that Fox News paid $787.5 million to settle the Dominion lawsuit. A lot of money to pay for telling blatant lies and spewing hatred on air, but ratings and the bottom line was more important to them than the truth.

They chose to become promoters of paranoia, something which in George Orwell’s “Nineteen Eighty-Four” was a feature of a fictional dystopian society, but which became very real for Fox News after the 2020 election.

*****

From the Wikipedia entry for “Two Minutes Hate” from George Orwell’s “1984”

In the dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four (1949), by George Orwell, the Two Minutes Hate is the daily, public period during which members of the Outer Party of Oceania must watch a film depicting Emmanuel Goldstein, the principal enemy of the state, and his followers, The Brotherhood, and loudly voice their hatred for the enemy and then their love of Big Brother.

In 2023, after two years of hate, in the partisan, dysfunctional real world, the Sixty Minutes Hate, on Fox News, is the daily public period during which viewers of Fox News watch the channel’s Talk Show Hosts, smear, discredit and demean Joe Biden, the illegitimate president and the principal enemy of the state, and his followers, The Democrats, and loudly, screaming at the TV-screen, voice their hatred for the enemy and then their love of Big Brother MAGA.

From Wikipedia “Two Minutes Hate”
The political purpose of the Two Minutes Hate is to allow the citizens of Oceania to vent their existential anguish and personal hatreds towards politically expedient enemies: Goldstein and the enemy super-state of the moment. In re-directing the members' subconscious feelings away from the Party's government of Oceania, and towards non-existent external enemies, the Party minimises thoughtcrime and the consequent, subversive behaviours of thoughtcriminals.

In 2023, the political purpose of the Sixty Minutes Hate on Fox News, is to allow the viewers to vent their existential anguish and personal hatreds towards politically expedient enemies: Biden and the woke deep state Government of the moment. In re-directing the viewers’ subconscious feelings away from the real issues of society, and towards non-existent enemies, Fox News minimises thoughtcrime and the consequent, subversive behaviours of thoughtcriminals, among its viewers.

From Wikipedia “Two Minutes Hate”
In the novel Nineteen Eighty-Four… the story of Winston Smith, the protagonist whose feelings communicate the effectiveness of the Party's psychological manipulation and control of Oceanian society:

“The horrible thing about the Two Minutes Hate was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.”

In 2023, in the hyper-partisan political environment and the fragmented 24/7 media space, rife with misinformation and alternative facts, the feelings of any Fox viewer communicate the effectiveness of Fox News’ psychological manipulation and control of a part of American society:

“The beautiful thing about the Sixty Minutes Hate on Fox News, is not that one is obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it is impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence is always unnecessary. A righteous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, flows through the whole group of Fox viewers like an electric current, turning one, even against one's will, into a grimacing, screaming avenger. And yet the virtuous rage that one feels is an abstract, undirected emotion which can be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.”

From Wikipedia “Two Minutes Hate”
At the end of the two-minute session of hatred, the members of the Party ritualistically chant "B-B . . . B-B . . . B-B . . . B-B."

In 2023, at the end of the sixty-minute session of hatred, the viewers of Fox News ritualistically chant "MA-GA . . . MA-GA . . . MA-GA . . . MA-GA."

From Wikipedia “Two Minutes Hate”
To maintain the extreme emotions provoked in the Two Minutes Hate sessions, the Party created Hate Week, a week-long festival of hatreds.

After the 2020 election, to maintain the extreme emotions provoked in the Sixty Minutes Hate sessions, Fox News chose to become the Hate Channel, an ongoing festival of hatreds.

*****

Unfortunately the story did not start with Fox News, and it will not end anytime soon. And Fox News is by no means alone, they have plenty of company in the alternative reality they inhabit.

*****

Bill Clinton, the Democratic President at the time of the Oklahoma City bombing, spoke in the aftermath against the “promoters of paranoia.”

“We hear so many loud and angry voices in America today whose sole goal seems to be to try to keep some people as paranoid as possible and the rest of us all torn up and upset with each other. They spread hate. They leave the impression that, by their very words, that violence is acceptable.”

*****

That was 25 years before January 6th, and over 45 years after “Nineteen Eighty-Four” was published.

*****

Two years after Jan 6th, the Republican ex-president chose to have a campaign rally in Waco, Texas; which was the location of the Waco siege in 1993; which in turn was cited, by the bomber, as a reason for the Oklahoma Bombing in 1995.

*****

Updated - There is an article in The Guardian by Jonathan Freedland, which deals with the same issue.
Fox News and its audience became hooked on lies – now they can’t break the habit

Trump indic(a)ted

Mar 31 2023

As you probably already know, Trump was indicted in Manhattan over his role in paying hush money to a Porn Star.

The New York Times
What We Know About the Indictment of Donald Trump, and What Comes Next

And true to form, Trump misspelled “indicted” in a post, writing that Thugs and Radical Left Monsters had INDICATED him.

The Washington Post
Trump and advisers caught off guard by New York indictment

*****

About the indictment, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said on Twitter: “Florida will not assist in an extradition request given the questionable circumstances at issue.”

Well, paying hush money to a Porn Star, is definitely something that can be defined as “questionable circumstances”.

And DeSantis is just being consistent, he wants to ban basically all discussions about sexuality, and this case involves a Porn Star. You can not really talk about Porn Stars without talking about sex, right?

“Sorry, can’t help you with the extradition, can’t talk about sex, and this involves a Porn Star. Can’t talk about it, so can’t extradite.”

And he is the Governor of Florida, where they think that Classical Art, like Michelangelo’s David, is pornography, even when it does not include a Porn Star.

Give him a break, he just wants to be a good guy, do the right thing, and follow the law.

AI - not Artificial and not Intelligent

Mar 30 2023 The Guardian

The problem with artificial intelligence? It’s neither artificial nor intelligent

Not Artificial:

Artificial Intelligence does not create whatever it does from thin air, everything it does is based on what real humans do. It copies what we humans have done, and serves it back to us. How is that “Artificial”?

Not Intelligent:

In academic and scientific circles, copying from someone else is not called intelligence, it is called Plagiarism. How does that make AI “Intelligent”?

AI changes everything

Mar 29 2023

The Washington Post

AI changes everything. We need new guardrails to survive it. And soon.

The New York Times

Elon Musk and Others Call for Pause on A.I., Citing ‘Profound Risks to Society’

Two more articles warning about AI. The previous ones I wrote about are here: No to Lethal AI

The basic message in all these articles seems to be: “AI will be everywhere. AI will change everything. We are not ready for it.”

This is probably true; we should regulate, build guardrails, independently audit the algorithms, and think what good and what bad can come from AI. And that is, doing this before we start using it, not just reacting after the fact, when the damage is already done.

The basic problem, that is not mentioned enough in the discussions about AI, is that AI is way more Artificial than it is Intelligent.

If AI was more Intelligent than Artificial, we would not have to worry about ethics, racism, inequality, environment, or anything else. AI would be Intelligent enough to take all these into account, and could be trusted to do the right thing.

But AI is Artificial, it says so in the name, and we are essentially talking about machines. And machines are not humans, they do not have the inherent ethics and morals that we humans have.

And because these machines are not human, and do not have our ethics and morals, we humans, who are building these machines, have to build guardrails and restraints into these machines. They will not become humans, but at least we can make them more Intelligent, and not just Artificial.

No to Lethal AI

Updated Mar 28 2023 The New York Times

A.I. Is Being Built by People Who Think It Might Destroy Us

Another “doomsday” piece about AI, which, by the way, still is more Artificial than Intelligent.

But it is getting better, so we should be prepared.

Dec 6 2022 The New York Times

San Francisco Backtracks on Plan to Allow Police Robots to Use Deadly Force

In November San Francisco Board of Supervisors advanced a policy that would have allowed the police to use a robot with deadly force. There was a backlash and in the second vote they reversed the idea. The police can use remote-controlled robots, but not with deadly force.

So, no killer robots and no lethal AI.
At least, not yet.

*****

The original decision to allow deadly force was in the news at the same time as a piece in The Washington Post about Henry Kissinger speaking in a forum titled “Man, Machine, and God”.

Why artificial intelligence is now a primary concern for Henry Kissinger

Kissinger described “AI as the new frontier of arms control”, and “cautioned that AI systems could transform warfare just as they have chess or other games of strategy — because they are capable of making moves that no human would consider but that have devastatingly effective consequences.”

This is not the first time Kissinger deals with AI. His 2018 essay in The Atlantic, How the Enlightenment Ends has a subtitle which summarizes the message: “Philosophically, intellectually — in every way — human society is unprepared for the rise of artificial intelligence.”

The Washington Post piece ends with a quote from Kissinger:

“Asked whether he was optimistic about the ability of humanity to limit the destructive capabilities of AI when it’s applied to warfare, Kissinger answered: “I retain my optimism in the sense that if we don’t solve it, it’ll literally destroy us. … We have no choice.”

*****

Maybe someone in San Francisco was listening to Henry Kissinger.

United Ireland?

Oct 6 2022 The Guardian

Could there be a united Ireland in the near future? It is possible, but it will not be easy.

My guess is, it will be a job for the next generation, which does not have so much historical baggage.

Two quotes from the piece:

“A united Ireland is a kind of nirvana that is very dangerous. It’ll resurrect all the ghosts of the past.”

“I’ll leave you with a traditional and appropriate Irish blessing, —- May you have the hindsight to know where you’ve been, the foresight to know where you are going, and the insight to know when you have gone too far.”

‘It’s closer now than it’s ever been’: could there soon be a united Ireland?

Victor “The Windsock” Orbán

Mar 6th 2022

Hungary will go to the polls on April 3rd, to choose a new parliament and to vote on a referendum on LGTBQ+ rights.

In the past week, the incumbent Victor Orbán has welcomed Ukrainian refugees with open arms, although he has been vehemently anti-immigration for a long time.

Maybe it is just me, but this looks like a case of pure political opportunism. The election will be in a few weeks, his poll numbers are not good, the opposition is united, and suddenly Europe and the World are united against Putin’s war in Ukraine. The wind is blowing from the west, and it looks like Orbán smelled an opportunity to stay in power.

I hope the Hungarian voters will see through his sudden Road-to-Damascus, or should it be Road-to-Brussels, moment, and remember the anti-democratic authoritarianism he has represented these past years.

He was in Moscow smiling with Putin in early February and over the years has met his “buddy” more than ten times. He was also endorsed by Trump a few months ago, who, by the way, called Putin a “genius” for invading Ukraine.

Orbán started his political career as a pro-European liberal democrat, then became a right-wing conservative anti-immigrant nationalist, and now, in a blink of an eye, becomes a beacon of European Unity and welcomes refugees to the country.

Or more correctly, that is what he wants the voters to believe. If it is that easy to change direction, who is to say that he will not do it again?

What he has definitely proven with this last change of heart, is that he is a purebred opportunist. The wind is blowing from the west, and Orbán “The Windsock” turns with it.

Rather than waiting for the wind to turn again, it would be better for Hungary, for Ukraine and for Europe as a whole, if the Hungarians voted him out in a free and fair election, and moved forward with new leaders.

Guns: safety or danger?

Nov 21 2021

Farhad Manjoo writes in The New York Times about guns, and how having guns on the streets can escalate a situation. This is specifically about the Kyle Rittenhouse trial (by now we know he was acquitted) but this piece is also about larger issues beyond a single trial.

The prosecutor in the case makes a very good and illuminating argument about having guns in volatile situations. They do not necessarily make the situation safer, the precense of guns can provoke and make the situation worse.

The Truth About Kyle Rittenhouse’s Gun

Hungary turns?

Oct 28 2021 The Guardian

Hungary: anti-Orbán alliance leads ruling party in 2022 election poll.

"We want a country where corruption is not organised, but fought.”

Bernie Sanders on the US budget

Jul 21 2021

Bernie Sanders writes in The Guardian about the proposed US budget. No Republicans are expected to support it, but it could pass with just Democratic backing.

The biggest win for the working class in generations is within reach

Pro-European Political Movement

Mar 21 2021

You might have missed that they had an election in the Netherlands last week, March 15th to 17th 2021.

The governing party won a fourth term, so no surprises there. But, the Pro-Europe party Volt took three seats.

The remarkable fact is that Volt Nederland is not exactly a Dutch party, it is the Dutch branch of the Pan-European movement Volt Europa, which has presence all over Europe, and has one representative in the European Parliament, from the German branch.

Here is an article from The New York Times with more details about the Dutch election, A Pro-Europe, Anti-Populist Youth Party Scored Surprising Gains in the Dutch Elections

Last year I wrote about the need to start a Global Extreme Centrist Ultra Non-Partisan Party. Volt is not global (yet), but as they say “politics is the art of the possible”, this is possible now, and a really big step in the right direction. (Besides it is Volt Europa, so it is EU-centric, but you do have to start somewhere.)

This highlights the same generational gap that Brexit did; older people are more nationalistic, and most young people in Europe identify as Europeans, in addition to whatever their nationality is.

Just one quote before I let you get along with Volt Europa and the NYT article.

Laurens Dassen, the 35-year old leader of the Dutch party:

“Most people of my generation grew up paying in euros and never having to think about crossing borders.”

“For us, Europe is a fact of life.”