Merry Brexit

On Brexit from The Guardian in Dec 2024

Brexit cost UK £27bn in lost trade in first two years, review finds

The good news…

Despite fall in trade, LSE study says overall impact was more limited than OBR forecasters first estimated

… and the not so good news, emphasis is mine

“We find that, through the end of 2022, the TCA reduced goods trade by less than half as much as the OBR projected. That said, the OBR number is a long-run projection and we only study the first two years of the TCA.

“The TCA has been a disaster for small exporters, many of which have simply stopped exporting to the EU…”

“Consequently, we find that, at least in the short run, aggregate trade proved moderately resilient to disintegration.”

(BTW, would you fly to your winter holiday destination in a plane that was moderately resilient to disintegration?)

*****

British food exports to EU ‘have fallen £3bn a year since Brexit’

Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy report finds trade flows have shown no signs of returning to previous levels

“Brexit has increased costs, spawned previously undreamt-of bureaucracy and seriously damaged trade.”

*****

Faced with Trump and Farage, Britain’s natural ally is Europe

The Labour party’s determination to stick to Brexit simply condemns the UK to fight a lone hand against the far-right forces ranged against it

*****

Rachel Reeves’ push to improve EU ties remains boxed in by red lines

Chancellor’s visit to EU meeting looks for smoother trade to improve growth but youth mobility scheme remains sticking point

*****

Starmer faces first major Brexit test as unionists request Stormont brake

UK government has been asked to veto EU law update applying in Northern Ireland relating to chemical labelling

*****

The latest cost of Brexit is about to hit – and voters are watching. Will Labour act?

New EU trade regulations will cause further pain for the UK. Starmer’s talk of breaking down barriers must be more than warm words

*****

Anyway, have a Merry Christmas and a Better New Year 2025

Brexit - Time for Reset

Dec 12 2024 The Guardian - Updated Dec 29 2024 The BBC

It is December 2024, and I can’t believe that I am still writing about Brexit. This was supposed to be done years ago and an independent glorious future should have arrived already.

Majority of Brexit voters ‘would accept free movement’ to access single market

But no, reality got in the way, and it is time for an ‘ambitious reset’ in the UK-EU relations. At least that is what the EU and UK public thinks. Politicians not so much, but this would not be the first time in history when politicians were out of step or lacked the necessary backbone to make obvious decisions.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the election of Trump in the US, not to mention the compounding effects of Brexit to the UK trade and economy, have, like it says in the piece, “fundamentally changed the context” of EU-UK relations.

A few quotes from the piece, (added emphasis is mine)

A majority of Britons who voted to leave the EU would now accept a return to free movement in exchange for access to the single market.

Perhaps the most striking finding was that 54% of Britons who voted leave, including 59% of voters in “red wall seats”, said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for EU and UK citizens to travel, live and work across borders.

“It is important to recognise that Brexit and the UK-EU future relationship matters more to UK respondents than to citizens of other states. But there is broad permission from European publics to recast relations.”

“There might be scepticism about special terms for the UK among EU officials and governments, but our poll suggests that public opinion is more pragmatic.”

Both UK and EU citizens … “are open to a much more ambitious and far-reaching reset than their governments have been envisaging”.

“The Brexit-era divisions have faded and both European and British citizens realise that they need each other to get safer. Governments now need to catch up with public opinion and offer an ambitious reset.”

Now is not a time to be a politician (with a small p), i.e. just worry about the results of the next election, the world has changed.

This is a time to be a Statesman, which means not focusing on the future of the party, but making bold decisions that secure the future of the country, and Europe and the World in general.

*****

The update on Dec 29…

UK and EU look to 2025 for reset, but with little room for trade-offs

Basically the same message, with more in depth look at the issues and negotiations. A quote from the piece worth mentioning here, emphasis is mine:

“Voters moving faster than their governments

Whatever the developments in EU-UK relations in 2025 and beyond, they are likely to happen slowly because of political concerns and because negotiations have a habit of getting bogged down in detail.

In direct contrast, a recent poll by YouGov and Datapraxis for the European Council of Foreign Relations suggests voters in the EU and UK are far more gung-ho than leaders in Brussels and London about jumping over previous political taboos to strengthen ties.”

Brexit has undermined UK economy

Nov 15 2024 The Guardian

Bank of England governor says Brexit has undermined UK economy

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past few years, the fact that Brexit has had, and continues to have, a bad effect on UK trade and economy, should not come as a surprise.

First of all, it is a no-brainer that severing ties with your most important export market will hurt your economy. But still the discussion goes on, and politicians seem to live in their bubbles, are scared to point out the obvious, and focus on cosmetic tinkering.

Labour is opposed to re-entering the EU’s single market or customs union. Instead, the government hopes to win more modest changes such as mutual recognition of professional qualifications and a veterinary agreement that could alleviate the need for checks on food exports.

Practically every survey, at least all I have seen, say that Brexit has been bad for trade and economy, and the general consensus among business people seems to be that leaving the EU was a really bad idea.

At this point in 2024, this should not be news to anyone, but maybe it takes the Governor of the Bank of England to hammer the message home. Still even he thought that he has to be “politically correct”;

Speaking at the Mansion House dinner in the City of London on Thursday evening, Andrew Bailey said he took no position on Brexit “per se”, but added: “I do have to point out consequences.”

I do not think he was trying to make a joke, but that does sound like something out of Blackadder.

From Thatcher to Trump and Brexit

Nov 10 2024 The Guardian

From Thatcher to Trump and Brexit: my seven lessons learned after 28 years as Guardian economics editor

“The free market experiment has failed, free trade is out, and populism is rife but it can be defeated if the left can galvanise ideas into a credible plan”

Lesson 1 - free-market experiment has failed.

Lesson 2 - ideas matter.

Lesson 3 - populism will continue to flourish until the left comes up with a credible and deliverable economic plan.

Lesson 4 - the world’s economic centre of gravity has moved from west to east and from north to south.

Lesson 5 - globalisation has gone into reverse.

Lesson 6 (“as the Guardian’s resident Eurosceptic”) - those who say Brexit has failed are not just jumping the gun but need to look across the Channel.

Lesson 7 - final lesson from the past 36 years is this: it is always worth questioning the status quo. Just because something is the received wisdom doesn’t mean it is right.

Brexit - no jobs for Brits

Oct 7 2024 The Guardian

‘Doesn’t feel fair’: young Britons struggle with losing right to work in EU since Brexit

Young Brits can not get work permits for seasonal work in the EU, and it ‘doesn’t feel fair’.

Of course it does not feel fair, because it is not fair. The young people who were interviewed for this piece were schoolkids in 2016 when their parents and grandparents voted for Leave.

No-one asked them, but now they are the ones facing the consequences of a vote they had no part in.

Politicians are, at least officially, against joining the single market or the customs union, but it would be a wise move from them to listen to these young people.

These young people can vote now.

Brexit for Flowers

May 4th 2024 The Guardian

UK flower industry thrown into chaos by new Brexit border checks

As we all know, the shelf life of cut flowers is not very long, so, of course, the new Brexit border checks that started on April 30th, resulted in lorries waiting for hours, and missing their deliveries.

“Don’t worry dear, your wedding looks just as good without the flowers. And you can throw this Brexit rule book to the Bridesmaids.”

Apart from a new computer system missing names of some flowers, one of the reasons for the delays is that the names have to be in Latin. I did not know you had to be Oxbridge educated to work in customs.

I guess, Brexit does not work in Latin either. Maybe we need to reclassify Brexit Officinalis to Brexit Vulgare.

*****

Or, maybe I got this all wrong, maybe this is a Brexit Opportunity? A golden opportunity to return education to the glory days of the Empire, and bring back the Classics and Latin to primary schools?

Brexit open for business

Jan 21st 2024 The Guardian

Brexit cost the UK the only good thing Margaret Thatcher ever did

In the annual Davos World Economic Forum last week Britain was proclaimed “open to business”.

There is one line in this piece that sums up this “open to business” statement well.

These mundane statements of the obvious reminded me of the character in one of Michael Frayn’s ­novels who had an open mind – “open at the front and open at the back”.

Pint-sized Brexit

Jan 7th 2024 The Guardian

Brexit’s pint-sized ‘benefits’ are a measure of its failure

A line from a Brexiter minister, when referring to the putative appearance of the pint-sized wine bottle:

“Our exit from the EU was all about moments just like this.”

The benefits of Brexit!

Poll on Brexit

Dec 30th 2023 The Guardian

Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll

According to a poll to mark the third anniversary of the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union: only one in 10 feel leaving the EU has helped their finances.

The other numbers from this poll are equally depressing.

Brexit for Electric Cars

Sep 22 2023 The Guardian

We can’t alter Brexit deal to appease car industry, says European commissioner

In this chapter of the Brexit saga, it is the car industry which is not happy. They are looking at 10% tariffs on electric car exports from January. Not that this comes as a surprise, this is in the Brexit treaty, which was negotiated and signed by both the EU and the UK.

Stellantis, the parent company for 14 brands, has said that if the tariffs are not (temporarily) lifted, it may have to close operations in the UK, and that would mean the loss of thousands of jobs.

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) is also against the tariffs, since they will hurt exports to the UK.

The Brits are not happy, and the Europeans are not happy, but the Chinese are, since they can export more of their cheaper cars to the market.

*****

I know you should never underestimate the power of denial; just wondering what on earth will it take for the politicians in the UK to come to their senses about Brexit.

*****

Updated Sep 25 2023 The BBC

Electric car rules could cost carmakers billions - £3.75bn over the next three years, on both sides of the Channel.

Too many Politicians - too few Statesmen

Sep 16 2023 The Guardian

Boris Johnson an ‘egotistical chancer’, says Rory Stewart

Rory Stewart, the former international development secretary, and one half of the current affairs podcast, The Rest Is Politics, has written a new book; Politics on the Edge: A Memoir from Within.

Here is the review:

Politics on the Edge by Rory Stewart review – blistering insider portrait of a nation in decline

And here is his article in The Guardian:

‘I saw how grotesquely unqualified so many of us were’: Rory Stewart on his decade as a Tory MP

Here is one quote from his piece:

It was a culture that prized campaigning over careful governing, opinion polls over detailed policy debates, announcements over implementation. I felt we had collectively failed to respond adequately to every major challenge of the past 15 years. I realised this most starkly when I understood that many of my colleagues still did not know what a customs union was two and a half years after the Brexit votes. Many of the political decisions I had witnessed were rushed, flaky and poorly considered: the cuts to the military paired with the purchase of ruinously expensive aircraft carriers, the lurches in health policy, the privatisation of the probation services. The lack of mature judgment was palpable, the consequences frequently terrible.

*****

I still think that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others, but I do wish we had more Statesmen, and fewer politicians.

Brexit Horizon

Sep 10 2023 The Guardian

A few days ago the UK rejoined the EU’s Horizon, a £81 or €95 billion programme for scientific collaboration; as an associate member, but still.

In forcing a U-turn on Horizon, scientists are showing that the flaws of Brexit can be overcome

That is really good news for both UK and European science, but not everyone is celebrating. The UK has been out of the programme for nearly three years, which, according to some prominent scientists, “has done irreversible damage to UK science”.

UK’s years out of EU Horizon programme did ‘untold damage’, say scientists

Well, science is based on facts, Brexit-politics definitely is not.

So, has the UK reached the high-water mark of Brexit, as Will Hutton states in his article? He highlights a few examples; the UK rejoins Horizon, Northern Ireland stays in the EU and the UK single market, the UK will not scrap 4,000 laws, and the new border regime checking on imports of EU food has been postponed for the fifth time.

Maybe facts and pragmatism will in the end turn the tide against Brexit-politics, and as Hutton ends his piece;

Britain will need to extend its new pragmatism and rejoin the single market and customs union. When it does, there will be the same universal welcome as there was for rejoining Horizon. The Brexit project is exploded. The task is now to repair the wreckage.

*****

Personally, I would love to see the end of Brexit, maybe write a post with the title “Brexit is Over”, but since this is politics, and despite the fact that most people would not vote for Brexit now, I will not be holding my breath on this.

Brexit vs. Bregret

Jul 20 2023 YouGov UK

Britons would vote to rejoin the EU

Politicians in the UK still talk about making Brexit work, of rosy Brexit opportunities, and of global Britain, whatever that means.

This is probably because they are politicians, and not Statesmen; a Statesman will tell people the truth, however unpleasant, a politician will always try to distract and spin something positive.

The UK public, on the other hand, has already seen through the spin and the lies. YouGov data shows that,

‘Bregret’ stands at highest level recorded to date…

… most Britons would now vote to Remain were the EU referendum being held again, and likewise would vote to rejoin the EU if such a vote were being called.

A majority of Britons (55%) say that, were the EU referendum taking place now, they would vote to Remain. Three in ten 31% say they would vote to Leave.

Currently, 57% of Britons say that the country was wrong to vote for Brexit in 2016 – the highest figure YouGov has recorded to date. By comparison, one in three (32%) think it was the right call.

Seven in ten Britons (70%) say the government is handling Brexit badly, including 83% of Remain voters and 58% of Leave voters.

The interesting thing here is that, if you look at the charts, you can see a trend starting from early 2022, i.e. after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Maybe the public intuitively sees what the politicians do not; that the original idea behind the EU was common European security. The tool to achieve that was the integrated economy.

When the public already sees the underlying idea, the politicians still seem to be talking about the tool.

Since the invasion, the EU, as an institution, has grown stronger, not weaker, and its popularity among Europeans has grown.

At the same time, in Brexit Britain, Bregret has seriously started to come out of the woodwork, and the UK politicians would be wise to publicly acknowledge that, and maybe do something about it.

Brexit: a “historic economic error”

Jun 2 2023 The Guardian

UK factories blame 16th month in a row of falling exports on Brexit barriers

British factories have reported a 16th consecutive month of falling exports, with manufacturers warning obstacles to trade since leaving the EU are undermining business relationships with firms on the continent.

Companies report trading with Europe is now more difficult as Larry Summers says exit from EU ‘contributed to higher inflation’ and that Brexit has ‘reduced the competitiveness of the UK economy’.

But what does Larry Summers know, he’s not even British.

“Brexit has failed”

May 20 2023 The Guardian

Nigel Farage was on BBC Newsnight on Monday, and said it: “Brexit has failed.”

He also admitted, that it is true that Britain has “not actually benefited from Brexit economically”, but it is the fault of “useless politicians” who have “mismanaged this totally”.

The weird thing here is that the “useless politicians” are the ones who led the campaign for Leave, and who have (mis)managed the Brexit negotiations. So, does this mean that we have Brexit (well not us, the Brits, thank God), because it was championed by “useless politicians”?

Brexit has failed, but it is not Brexit’s fault. Britain has been betrayed, stabbed in the back.

You have to blame the “useless politicians”, the “remoaner elite”, the civil service, the BBC, the universities, the unions, or the desperate refugees coming in small boats, who, by the way, did not vote for or against Brexit.

And talking about immigration, it has not gone down since the UK left the EU. Figures will be published next week, and some suggest that it has gone up to 700,000 or 1 million. And just exactly, what kind of spin will the Brexiteers come up with for that?

A few days ago, the automakers called for the government (run by these same “useless politicians”) to renegotiate the Brexit deal… A new round of negotiations with Brussels? Good luck with that.

These “useless politicians” do not want to admit it, but the many failures of Brexit have become clear to the public. About 35% of UK voters now think it was right to leave the EU, and roughly 55% say it was wrong. Anyone for another referendum?

The cost of living is up, and millions are being squeezed. Interest rates have been raised, and inflation remains high. The UK is becoming poorer, and as a result it is falling behind; forecast to be seventh in G7 and twentieth in G20.

If this was football, Brexit FC would be deep in the relegation zone.

The blame game has started, but maybe, just maybe, it is time to stop and face the facts. It is now nearly seven years since the referendum. Since then, Boris and the Brexiteers (sounds like a bad rock band, BTW) did not lead his people to the promised land, and despite their promises of bountiful Brexit harvests, seven lean years of famine followed.

The hard cold truth is; Britain has indeed been stabbed in the back.

“Et tu, Brexit?”

*****

They’re openly saying it: Brexit has failed. But what comes next may be very dark indeed

Ford, Vauxhall owner and JLR call for UK to renegotiate Brexit deal

Brexit blame game erupts again: how leaving EU came back to bite Tories

Brexit has wrecked Britain’s car industry, but so have the Tories

Brexit - People vs. Politicians

Apr 30 2023 The Guardian

On Brexit, will no one in the major parties admit that Britain has blundered?

William Keegan, who wrote this piece, says that when he was waiting for spare parts for his Fiat, Tennyson’s poem came to his mind,

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward.
All in the valley of Death,
Rode the six hundred.

The two major parties refuse to say that Brexit was a bad decision, and stubbornly deny the scale of the economic disaster. The public on the other hand have seen through the lies; a recent study indicates that 59% of respondents to a poll say Brexit has made Great Britain worse off; and 55% say Brexit was “a mistake”.

*****

William Keegan was thinking of Tennyson. In my head, as I was reading the piece, the headline morphed into “Will no one rid me of this troublesome Brexit”. I actually had to go back and check what it really said.

Anyway, that got me thinking, who would say this, or more to the point, who would not?

Keir Starmer is probably thinking that, but does not say it, probably due to political calculations, or just because he is a politician. A Statesman would see the fact and tell it to the public, and the public would probably reward the honesty.

Rishi Sunak, being a brexiteer, can’t say that without admitting that their Leave campaign was based on plain lies and misinformation. But I bet, he would love to deal with something else than Brexit and its economic results.

And it seems that the British public is tired of the queues in Dover and issues with “EU-UK supply chains”, and is really saying “Who will rid us of this troublesome Brexit”.

The local elections are coming up, so we’ll see how this will be reflected in the results, and in the inevitable discussions in the aftermath.

*****

Anyway, not everything is rotten in the state of the United Kingdom, the coronation of King Charles III will give a feelgood distraction from politics and economics, and something else to talk about, at least for a day or two.

Brexit - Bad weather

Easter 2023 The Guardian

Apr 2
“Thousands of people have faced a second day stuck in queues at Dover, as Suella Braverman denied post-Brexit checks were to blame for the chaos.”

“I don’t think that’s fair to say that this has been an adverse effect of Brexit,” later, on BBC One, she blamed “bad weather”.
Thousands queue at Dover for second day as Braverman accused of denial

Apr 3
No 10 concedes that post-Brexit checks played role in traffic chaos at Dover

Apr 6
Long queues form at Dover as port braces for Easter travel chaos

Apr 7
Travellers crossing Channel from UK face 90-minute delays on Good Friday

To be continued…

Brexit - Do you trust the Parliament?

Mar 30 2023 The Guardian

Britons have more confidence in EU than Westminster, poll finds

“British people are now far more likely to have confidence in the EU than in UK parliament or the government.”

“Since the UK voted for Brexit, the proportion of people declaring confidence in parliament has slumped by 10 percentage points to 22% while there has been a seven percentage point rise in confidence in the Brussels-based bloc, to 39%.”

The former Brexit secretary David Davis blamed, among other things, the media:

“No one reads about square strawberries or straight bananas any more.”

Maybe it is just me, but with the Pandemic, the war in Ukraine, Climate Change, and other problems; talking about square strawberries and straight bananas, does sound a bit out of touch with everyday reality.

Brexit deal for NI signed

Mar 24 2023 The Guardian

Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal for Northern Ireland formally signed off with EU

This comes after a Conservative rebellion against the deal failed, and Sunak won the overwhelming backing of MPs for the deal aimed at fixing problems with the original Northern Ireland protocol.

Obviously, not everyone supported the deal, 22 MPs refused to back the deal. These included the usual suspects, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg, along with the Democratic Unionist party.

Can’t say that I am disappointed, on the contrary, but since this looks like normal reasonable politics, it is a bit unexpected, and not something we are used to hearing about Brexit.

Brexit: secret cross-party summit

Feb 11 2023 The Guardian

Revealed: secret cross-party summit held to confront failings of Brexit

One paragraph from the article says it all:
”The highly unusual cross-party nature of the gathering of Brexit opponents – and the seniority of those who agreed to attend –reflects a growing acceptance among politicians in the two main parties, as well as business leaders and civil servants, that Brexit in its current form is damaging the UK economy and reducing its strategic influence in the world.”

Vote for Leave,
Get Brexit done (after a few years),
Party,
Wake up to reality in denial,
Arrange a secret summit.

“A confidential introductory statement for those at the meeting acknowledged that there was now a view among “some at least, that so far the UK has not yet found its way forward outside the EU” with Brexit “acting as a drag on our growth and inhibiting the UK’s potential”.

“The main thrust of it was that Britain is losing out, that Brexit it not delivering, our economy is in a weak position.”

“… there is also clear European as well as British strategic interest in a productive and closer relationship.”

“EU and UK “have shared interests on containing Russian aggression, developing new sources of energy and building major technology companies with their capital base on our side of the Atlantic, rather than just the US”, as well as common defence interests.”

“… forging closer links with the EU on tackling organised crime, illegal immigration and defence, and raised the possibility of a joint EU-UK policy towards China.”

But, “rejoining the EU will not be on the agenda”

Instead: “How might the trade and cooperation agreement be optimised now and amended later? How might trade and services between the UK and Europe be better managed?”

¿Does this mean, like they were managed before Brexit?