The wreckage of Brexit

Jan 1 2023 The Guardian

The wreckage of Brexit is all around us. How long can our politicians indulge in denial?

“I don’t deny there are costs to a decision like Brexit, but there are also opportunities, and you have to see it in the round.” - Jeremy Hunt (voted Remain in 2016)

-reduced trade,
-diminished investment,
-the UK being the only major economy not to have returned to its pre-pandemic size,
-a hit to tax revenues estimated at an annual £40bn,
-impossible passport queues,
-the queues in Dover,
-howls of pain from businesses tied up in red tape,
-the Metropolitan police buying armoured ministerial cars from the German Audi because no UK firm was “able to meet the requirements of the tender”
-annual UK car production fallen by more than half since 2016.

If ever, this is the time to use the saying:
“Never underestimate the power of denial.”

Brexit for Food

Dec 3 2022 The Guardian

The reality of Brexit is biting hard. Poor people are suffering most – and now everyone can see it

“We are paying £6bn more just to eat. After years of abstract debate, the human consequences of our exit become clearer by the day.”

Brexit has fuelled surge in UK food prices, says Bank of England policymaker

“Brexit is contributing to a surge in food prices as the country heads into recession, a senior Bank of England policymaker has warned.”

Brexit for Cheese - Part 3

Nov 18 2022 The Guardian

“Prohibitive export charges and paperwork have shattered the bright future promised to small British businesses like mine”

Simon Spurrell is director of the Cheshire Cheese Company

I once sold cheese to Europe. Brexit took my business to the brink of destruction

This is the third part of this saga - Part 2 can be found here Brexit for Cheese - Part 2

“We have been lucky enough to have found a solution: our company was recently bought out by Britain’s largest maker of Cheshire cheese. The third-generation family business has taken a majority stake in our business and provided us with security, growth and – most importantly – a gateway back to the EU via their Netherlands hub.”

“The cost and complexity of shipping, along with the navigation of the bureaucracy due to each country in the EU interpreting the Brexit deal differently makes it incredibly difficult for small businesses to export to the EU. Small businesses in the UK contribute 45% of the annual turnover, yet we have been made the victims in every trade deal that has been negotiated. No consideration has been given for our contribution to the economy or any support to gain a practical route to export markets. The period since Brexit has been devastating for us, destroying all plans we had for any great future in Europe, one that we were promised.”

Brexit damaging trade

Feb 9th 2022 - The Guardian

Brexit damaging trade with EU, says public accounts committee

Brexit red tape has damaged Britain’s trade with the EU and the situation could worsen unless the government works with Brussels to reduce hold-ups at UK ports, parliament’s spending watchdog has said.

Only hours after Jacob Rees-Mogg was appointed minister for Brexit opportunities, a report by the cross-party public accounts committee (PAC) said border checks in place since the beginning of the year had increased business costs and “suppressed” trade with the EU.

Maybe I am slow, or this is hard to see from outside the UK, but “Minister for Brexit Opportunities”? What opportunities?

Unless, of course, this means exporting biting, sarcastic and ironic comedy about Brexit, in the vein of Blackadder.

That I have to admit, is a real Opportunity!

Brexit is biting

Jan 31st 2022 - The Guardian

Covid has been an easy scapegoat for economic disruption, but Brexit is biting by Anand Menon

Once the pandemic recedes and the UK wakes up from the Covid nightmare, the country will (unfortunately, has to) open its eyes to Brexit reality.

Where did the £350m a week for the NHS go?
Why the queues of lorries in Dover?
The UK GDP is lower than expected?
The UK trade has fallen?
What has happened?

Covid has obviously been the number one news for the past two years, and when the pandemic eventually recedes, other news can and will emerge from its shadows, like the ones about Brexit.

From the outside, this starts to look like “From the table to the frying pan, from the frying pan to the fire, and from the fire… back to the frying pan”. By the looks of it, there will probably also be a cutting board somewhere in this never ending Brexit saga.

The only good (or should I say ‘appropriate’) thing here is that the people who most wanted Brexit, are the government now, so they will have to live with it.

Brexit for Cheese - Part 2

Dec 27 2021 The Guardian

Part 1 of this small part of the Brexit saga was in the spring, and here is the link, Brexit for Cheese.

At the time, the co-founder of the Cheshire Cheese Company predicted that the company would lose £250,000 in sales because of Brexit. He was only slightly wrong, they lost £270,000.

Here is the link to the piece, Brexit: ‘the biggest disaster any government has ever negotiated’

And here links to two previous pieces about the same issue.
Mar 27 2021 Brexit: UK cheese firm boss in despair over minister's export advice
Jan 23 2021 Cheshire cheesemaker says business left with £250,000 'Brexit hole'

I wrote in the previous piece “I guess I do not need to comment…”, and I still think I don’t…

Quarreling about fishing trying to hide Brexit problems?

Oct 31 2021 The Guardian

Johnson’s foreign quarrels can’t conceal the truth about Brexit

One quote in this piece says it all…

“What on earth were you all thinking of?”

Pandemic bad, Brexit worse

Oct 28 2021 The Guardian

Does not really need a comment from me, does it.

Brexit worse for the UK economy than Covid pandemic, OBR says

“Fiscal watchdog says Brexit would cut GDP by around 4% long term, while Covid impacts would hit output by a further 2%”

Sacrificing business for Brexit purity

Oct 18 2021 The Guardian

The Tories are sacrificing Northern Irish businesses on the altar of Brexit purity

Single-market status has been a boon to firms – but stirring up a trade dispute with the EU may be worth more to Boris Johnson

A taster from the piece:

“Stephen Kelly, chief executive of Manufacturing NI, which represents 5,500 Northern Irish firms, tells me “not one” of his members has raised the obscure question of the government’s attempt to remove the European court of justice (ECJ) as arbitrator of trade disputes. “Everyone knows a treaty needs legal backup. There have been border problems with the rest of the UK,” he says, but the ECJ is “nothing but a Brexit purity issue”.

Northern Irish businesses have good reason to be alarmed, as the protocol gives many of them an extraordinary opportunity: staying in the single market from which the rest of the UK is excluded. “Scotland would give its right arm for a deal like ours,” Kelly says. Sales of goods to the Irish Republic have risen by 61% in just eight months, he reports, as Irish buyers switch from harder to access English goods. “Manufacturers have brimming order books,” he says.”

Suez crisis & Brexit

Oct 17 2021 The Guardian

A bit of historical perspective to the Brexit saga.
Suez taught us our future lay in Europe. So will Brexit

“Britain’s two great self-inflicted crises of the postwar era point to a conclusion that voters may soon rediscover for themselves”

Brexit - UK rejects EU’s NI moves

Jul 26 2021

Downing Street says Brussels overtures are insufficient and ‘comprehensive’ solutions needed…

I thought they already got Brexit done, but what do I know.

UK rejects EU’s Northern Ireland moves, saying Brexit deal must be renegotiated

Brexit - NI Protocol renegotiations?

Jul 21 2021 from The Guardian

The Brexit referendum was in June 2016. It is now July 2021, and the UK wants to renegotiate the Northern Ireland Brexit Protocol.

If it is not blindingly obvious already, then this should make it crystal clear that no-one in the Brexit camp thought about Northern Ireland before the referendum, or after it for that matter.

The EU of course ruled out any renegotiation, but that has never stopped the UK side.

Brexit means Brexit, but not this kind of Brexit, maybe that kind or Brexit, or maybe something with bells and whistles, or maybe with the cake we just ate, or let me think for a while, it is just on the tip of my tongue…

This saga reminds me of Monsters vs. Aliens - “I may not have a brain, gentlemen, but I have an idea”, except that in the movie the idea worked.

UK says it wants to substantially rewrite Northern Ireland Brexit protocol

Ps. The Guardian editorial - The Guardian view on Boris Johnson’s Brexit lies: reality demands a rewrite

And UK’s Northern Ireland protocol demands sap Brussels’ goodwill

Jul 22nd 2021 - Less than 24 hours after the UK government proposal Brexit: Von der Leyen rejects Boris Johnson bid to renegotiate Irish protocol

Northern Ireland, reconciliation?

Jul 17th,2021 from The Guardian

Simon Jenkins writes about truth and reconciliation in Northern Ireland. Maybe an chance to take another step forward in the peace process.

Only by forgiving – and forgetting – can Ireland move on from its past

Northern Ireland riots

Apr 9th 2021

There has been unrest in Northern Ireland for the past week, and according to the police rioting was worst seen in Northern Ireland in years.

There are of course multiple causes for the unrest, but Brexit is definitely not helping, and it looks like peace in Northern Ireland is in danger of becoming collateral damage.

The Brexit referendum was in June 2016, nearly five years ago. How on earth, was this too short a time to deal with the border with Ireland?

Not solving the issue during the negotiations, and not being truthful about the options, and in addition, making false promises, and then breaking them, has brought us here; petrol bombs, bricks and fireworks thrown at police, bins and vehicles set on fire, and police using a water cannon to try to disperse the crowds.

The promises of smooth trade and no border in the Irish Sea have gone up in smoke and the reality of Brexit is starting to have serious consequences, and pardon the pun, other things are going up in smoke as well.

So, where do we go from here?

PS Apr 10th The Guardian

[T]he LCC [Loyalist Communities Council] said there had been a “spectacular collective failure” to understand their anger over Brexit and other issues, and the border protocol must be renegotiated. Critics of the departure deal’s Northern Ireland protocol say a border is in effect in the Irish Sea, leaving unionists feeling betrayed.

“We have repeatedly urged HM Government, political leaders and Institutions to take seriously our warnings of the dangerous consequences of imposing this hard border on us and the need for earnest dialogue to resolve matters. We reiterate that message now,” the LCC said.

NI police say paramilitaries not behind recent violence

More opinions and analysis on this below.

This is from the Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland The consequences of Boris Johnson’s careless Brexit are playing out in Belfast

From the BBC
Analysis: What is Brexit doing to Northern Ireland?

The Guardian yesterday Apr 8th ‘The fear is that this will get bigger’: six nights of rioting in Northern Ireland

The Guardian editorial Apr 6th The Guardian view on the riots in Northern Ireland: situation dangerous

And the timeline of the unrest from the BBC
Timeline: How Northern Ireland's violence unfolded

PS April 10th is the 23rd anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday Agreement

Irish Passports

Apr 3rd 2021

Irish citizenship rules say that if you have, or had, a grandparent from Ireland, you are entitled to an Irish passport.

Due to Brexit the interest and demand for the Irish, meaning EU, passport surged, and more than 422,000 passports were issued from 2016 to 2020.

More details on this on The Guardian website: Brexit vote sparked surge in Irish passports issued in Great Britain

My non-scientific guess is that as Brexit issues keep piling up, the demand will continue to be high.

But for the sake of UK and EU, I hope I am wrong. Besides, at some point the UK population will run out of Irish grandparents.

Brexit for Cheese

Mar 27 2021

The Guardian
Brexit: UK cheese firm boss in despair over minister's export advice

The Co-founder of Cheshire Cheese Company wanted help with salvaging his EU business, but was offered help from the Department for International Trade with “emerging markets” in the US and Canada.

“He says the past three months have been among the worst in his career, with a lucrative EU business brought to a halt because of the extra costs and paperwork caused by a hard Brexit.”

I guess I do not need to comment…

UK export data

The Guardian Mar 22, 2021 Data shows collapse of UK food and drink exports post-Brexit

UK’s HMRC (Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs) figures show massive year-on-year falls in trade in food and drink exports. Brexit trade disruptions are probably mostly to blame, but pre-Brexit stockpiling and the pandemic lockdowns have had an effect as well. During the pandemic, restaurants, hotels, and bars have been closed on and off, and have either hoarded what they need from the UK, or switched to other suppliers, resulting in weaker demand.

The January numbers are not encouraging;
-cheese exports down from £45m to £7m
-whisky exports from £105m to £40m
-chocolate exports from £41.4m to £13m
-beef exports down 92%
-salmon exports 98%
-trade in fish (including some completely banned live shellfish) down 79%

Comparing January 2020 to January 2021 is not straightforward, due to Brexit the whole trade environment has changed, and the pandemic lockdowns add to the picture, but these numbers do not exactly promise a rosy future. One line from the article says it all:

“Overall figures now show that food and drink exports collapsed in January, plunging overall by 75.5% year on year. Down to £256m from £1bn.”

Brexit - Taking back control?

From The Guardian Mid March 2021
'It’s been tough': UK exporters on how Brexit has damaged them
”Businesses cite higher costs, customs delays and paperwork as among the problems they face”
Angelbond, shellfish exporter: ‘We lost a lot of money’
Trunki, suitcase and bag maker: ‘We have an extra admin burden and level of cost’
Brompton, bicycle maker: ‘There is a cost’

The Observer view on the grim effects of Brexit being impossible to hide
”Johnson sold Britain a botched EU deal and no amount of spin or downright lies can conceal that it is falling apart”

Eight major government U-turns on post-Brexit controls
”The timetable for the major new controls that have already been imposed and those that have been delayed”

Ministers watering down green pledges post-Brexit, study finds
”Greener UK claims analysis shows rhetoric on environment not being matched by action”

Brexit blamed for British exports to Ireland falling 65% in January
”New customs rules also a factor in 41% drop in value of goods moving from UK to the EU”

The Brexit deal was astonishingly bad, and every day the evidence piles up
”Trade has plummeted and red tape has blocked our borders. Is that what ‘protecting our sovereignty’ meant?”

Brexit - “Lighter touch”

This is from The Guardian Mar 7th 2021
Food scarcity fears prompt plan to ease post-Brexit checks on EU imports

Some highlights:

”With UK exporters to the EU having been severely hit by new rules, regulations and costs of operating under the post-Brexit regime, business organisations and senior figures in Whitehall now fear that EU exporters to the UK – particularly those involved with food – could be even less prepared than their UK counterparts were at the start of this year.

A big worry is that delays resulting from checks could hit food supplies including the “just in time” delivery network.

One senior industry figure said: “The worry is that if we go ahead with more checks and move to checks on imports, then exporters will not be prepared and on this side we are not ready for that either. There is not the infrastructure in place yet or the number of customs officials necessary to carry all this out. We have already seen exports badly affected. The next nightmare could be imports.”…

(A survey found a 45% drop in exports since Jan 1st.)

Is this Taking Back Control with a Lighter Touch?

Trade re-routes

The Guardian Feb 20th 2021

Ports feel the chill as trade re-routes around Brexit Britain

Since Brexit, i.e. Jan 1st 2021, freight traffic has fallen by 50% in Welsh ports of Holyhead and Fishguard. This is because of Brexit delays and the Red Tape involved, hauliers are just trying to avoid going through UK to make life and business easier and more predictable.

Trade is a bit like water forming a river; it will find the path of least resistance. For Irish trade now, this seems to be shipping straight to the continent, meaning they stay within the EU.

For all the people and businesses dependent on the trade going through those ports, I really hope this is a “teething problem”.

But I am not exactly optimistic.