Afghan Allies

Feb 1 2025 The New York Times

The Moral and Strategic Case for Taking in the Afghan Refugees

On Jan 20th, the first day of his second administration, President Trump, by executive order, suspended the US Refugee Admissions Program.

On Jan 22nd, the administration announced that even those who were already approved for resettlement, had their travel plans cancelled.

This is a broad suspension of the US Refugee Admissions Program, and it affects all refugees, including the Afghan soldiers and translators who fought alongside the US forces in the war.

You do not have to have been a soldier in the Afghan army to end up on the wrong side of the Taliban government, working on civilian projects is enough, if the Taliban so decides.

During the war the US, and the West in general, gave a promise that if you help us fight this war, we will have your back, we will take care of you and your family.

The US pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021, and that promise was broken.

The suspension of the US Refugee Admissions Program, and the cancellation of travel for the already vetted and approved refugees, is to put it bluntly, just another broken promise added to the heap of broken promises.

*****

What is the message this sends to the world?

From the world’s richest country, which by the way has the world’s best equipped military force.

From a country where about 98% of the population are descendants of migrants or refugees.

I would not blame anyone for asking the question: “Is the US really our ally, or are we just expendable pawns in this power struggle?”, would you?

*****

I do understand the domestic politics, and that the promises made during election campaigns should be kept, and I agree that the US immigration policy needs to be developed, and all that.

But this is where ‘understandable’ and ‘acceptable’ part ways. Understanding that the immigration policy in your country needs to change, does not make breaking promises to your allies acceptable.

If it does, who will ever trust you again?

*****

Unfortunately and totally inappropriately, regarding the seriousness of this situation, reading this piece reminded me of the scene from Blackadder, where General Melchett is visiting the troops in the trenches.

General Melchett

"Don't worry my boy. Remember, if you should falter, Captain Darling and I are behind you."

Captain Blackadder

"About 35 miles behind you."

Opium - Bust, Boom and Bust

Dec 18 2024 The New York Times

The Once Booming Drug Town Going Bust Under Taliban Rule

Here, a shorter and simpler version of the piece;

When the Taliban came to power in 1996, they banned growing poppy and the opium trade. And they enforced the ban ruthlessly. The farmers could not grow poppy, and they struggled and stayed poor.

In 2001, the Americans invade the country, and push the Taliban out. The insurgency starts.

Taliban needs money to fund the insurgency and starts to promote growing poppy, and the production and export of opium. The farmers earn good money, from a cash crop with a long shelf life.

The drug trade grows exponentially, and the Taliban, being morally flexible, tax the trade, and earn millions upon millions over the years. The farmers, traders, smugglers, and everyone else connected to the drug trade earn good money.

Americans try eradication, but destroying the cash crop farmers depend on, is not a winning strategy, and it does not work.

The Americans leave, the Taliban gain power again, and the war ends.

Once in power, the Taliban again ban growing poppy and the whole drug trade. And again they enforce the ban ruthlessly. The farmers, again, struggle and stay poor.

*****

The really short version would be

Taliban in power - opium bad - farmer poor
No power, need money - opium good - farmer not so poor
Back in power - opium bad - again, farmer poor

Back to Afghanistan

Jan 4th 2024 The New York Times

The U.S. Embassy in Kabul is empty, and has been since the withdrawal in 2021.

Washington still provides a lot of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, but also upholds sanctions, and has no representation in the country.

Does that sound a bit odd, or is it just me?

Here is a good piece from someone who has been in the region for much longer than me.

It’s Time for America to Go Back to Afghanistan

No education for Afghan women

Aug 28 2023 The BBC

Taliban stop female Afghan students leaving country to study in Dubai

Some 100 Afghan women have been granted a scholarship to study at the University of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates from Emirati billionaire businessman Sheikh Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor.

The scholarships were announced in December 2022 after the Taliban banned women from university.

But Taliban officials stopped them at the airport, saying women are not allowed to leave Afghanistan on a student visa.

The Taliban has banned solo travel for women and only allow them to go abroad with their husbands or a related male companion such as a brother, uncle or father, known as a mahram, a male escort.

But in this case, even that was not enough, some women who had a mahram, were pulled off the plane.

So far, the Taliban have declined to comment.

*****

I’ll just add a thought here.

How solid is the base of a regime, if educating women who live under it, is a threat to them?

Taliban bans female UN workers

Apr 5 2023 The Guardian

The Taliban seem determined to repeat the mistakes they made the last time they were in government. They did promise to be more liberal, but the pull of ideology just seems to be too strong.

‘No work for women, they should wear the burka and stay at home. What do they need university education for? Well, what do they need school for? No need to go to the park, or the gym, or anywhere, stay at home.’

And now, ban women from working for the UN.

The simple fact is that, without local female staff the UN cannot deliver aid to those who need it most. At the moment the situation in Afghanistan is bad, but not bad enough for the Taliban not to make life harder and alienate the population further.

How long can the Taliban go on like this, is anyone’s guess. But one day this will reach a tipping point and then they either have to come to their senses, or face some kind of unrest in the country. And unrest in Afghanistan is not something to look forward to.

The Taliban would be wise to remember that “history doesn’t teach anyone anything — it only punishes for lessons not learnt.”

Afghanistan - a bit of history

Apr 14th 2021 - Updated Mar 29th 2023

As President Biden announced on Apr 14th, 2021, US, NATO and other allied troops will withdraw from Afghanistan by Sep 11th.

The withdrawal will end America’s longest war, just shy of 20 years, but it will probably not end the war in Afghanistan. On the contrary, fighting will most likely escalate. The Taliban is not really willing to negotiate with the Afghan government, and warlords with powerful militias are active again. There is fear of another civil war.

During the next few months there will be negotiations about peace and power sharing and the form of the future Afghan government.

All parties in these talks should remember what the Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin said about peace negotiations: "You don't make peace with friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies."

That means that everyone has to compromise, everyone has to give something so peace, or more accurately a workable compromise, can be reached.

For the sake of the people of Afghanistan, let’s hope some kind of peace can be worked out.

The withdrawal will end the current US military involvement in Afghanistan, but also only one chapter in the history of the conflict. Remember, this did not start when the US invaded after 9/11 in 2001, this conflict has long roots.

I spent a few years in Afghanistan, in civilian projects, in 2010-12, but I am by no means an expert on Afghan history or politics. The following short(ish) history is not meant to be exhaustive, but only an attempt to give a general idea of the background and some context of the situation. Knowing what experiences and history the Afghan people have, it is easier to understand the news reporting on the peace negotiations.

A Short(ish) History

No point in going too far back, so starting from 1973, a point that a lot of people still alive today would remember. If you were a teenager then, you would be over 60 today.

This was the era of the Cold War, the world divided to the democratic, or in some cases right-wing West, the communist countries led by the Soviet Union and China, and the smaller amount of non-aligned countries balancing between those two.

People could not move freely between these two spheres of influence, and as absurd as it sounds in today’s Europe, to highlight that division, there was a wall in Berlin cutting the city in two, the East and the West.

Nixon was still president, and the Watergate scandal was going on, and there was still war in Vietnam.

For those who do not follow world affairs or politics, this was one year before ABBA won the Eurovision Song Contest with Waterloo.

From a Kingdom to a Republic

In July 1973, the ex-Prime Minister Mohammed Daoud Khan seized power in a bloodless coup from his first cousin King Zahir Shah, and established a republic, with himself as president. Daoud Khan had good relations with the Soviet Union, but also had a policy of non-alignment regarding the Cold War powers.

His government included communists who had supported his coup, but after a few years he also started to build relations in the Middle East with countries which were anti-Soviet.

Daoud Khan also had a long-running Pashtunistan policy apparent already during his time as Prime Minister in 1953-63. The aim was to reunite ethnic Pashtun areas of Pakistan with Afghanistan, which obviously led to bad relations, including proxy wars, with Pakistan.

1978 the Saur Revolution

The Soviets were not happy with Afghanistan improving relations with the West, and in April 1978 the communists staged a coup, the Saur Revolution.

Daoud Khan and most of his family were killed in the coup. The communists came to power and established the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, with Nur Mohammed Taraki as president.

They implemented a socialist agenda including a land reform, which proved to be extremely unpopular in tribal rural Afghanistan. In general, modernisation and secularisation were unpopular, especially in the religious countryside, and changing the traditional flag to a copy of the Soviet flag was a total failure. They also started brutal political repression, and executed over 25,000 political prisoners.

1979 was a consequential year for the region as a whole and for the rise of political Islam.

The Iranian Revolution had been gathering speed for a while, and the Shah went to exile in January, Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile in February, and in April Iran became an Islamic republic. Later in the year the situation escalated and led to the US embassy hostage crisis.

The Soviets were alarmed by the Iranian revolution, and were wary of Islamic revolution spreading. Iran was next door both to Afghanistan and the Soviets, and there were about 40 million Muslim citizens in the Soviet Union, mostly along the borders with Iran and Afghanistan.

Also March 1979 saw the US backed Israel-Egypt peace agreement, which for the Soviets was proof that Egypt was moving into the US camp. It was signed in Washington D.C. by Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin, and negotiated with the help of the Jimmy Carter administration.

In November 1979, the Grand Mosque in Mecca was seized by Islamist militants, and the siege and the battle resulted in hundreds of casualties, and shook Saudi Arabia and the wider Islamic world to the core. Saudi rulers ended up giving more power to religious conservatives, not cracking down on religious militants. They did not see the militants as too religious, but having wrong interpretations of Islam, so their remedy was more religion, provided by the establishment.

In Afghanistan, Taraki’s rule became increasingly unpopular, and the situation deteriorated rapidly. Serious uprisings began soon after the failed reforms and the brutal repressions, and in September 1979, Hafizullah Amin, another leader in the revolution, seized power and subsequently had Taraki killed.

Amin could not pacify the country, he was seen as part of the repressive leadership, and the Soviets decided to replace him.

The Soviet decision to invade Afghanistan was probably influenced to varying degrees, by the deteriorating situation in the country, the Iranian revolution and the possibility of the growth of militant Islam next door, and the Israel-Egypt peace agreement and other real or perceived US advancements in the Middle East.

The view in the politburo was that Afghanistan can not be lost to the West, that would mean having an anti-Soviet country on the southern border, and not a communist or at least a non-aligned and a friendly country.

Soviet Union invasion

So, on December 27th 1979 Amin was killed in a coup and the Soviets invaded the country. And Babrak Karmal, yet another leader in the revolution, was installed as a leader.

Islamic countries, along with the West, condemned the invasion, and support for the Afghan guerrillas, the Mujahideen, began to flow into the country.

US, UK, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China among others provided weapons, and Saudi Arabia also later promised to match US funding. At first, the idea was to provide Soviet weapons, so it would seem that the Mujahideen had seized them on the battlefield, but later the aid also included more sophisticated weapons like Stinger missiles.

The military assistance was funneled through Pakistani ISI, which of course had their own agenda regarding Afghanistan. So, because the Pakistani ISI preferred them, the aid focused on militant Islamist groups, including those led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani. Saudis, who matched US funding, also favored Islamist groups, after all this was a Holy War against communist non-believers, and many of the volunteer Mujahideen were Saudis, including Osama bin Laden.

The non-military aid also included building and funding religious schools, Madrassas, for Afghan refugees. Later some of these schools became bases for militant Islam.

The aid to Afghanistan grew during the Reagan administration, and became the largest aid program to an insurgency in the world. The US aid alone was over $20 billion over the course of the war.

The war soon settled into a pattern which would be familiar to US soldiers more than 20 years later, the Soviets controlled the cities and major roads, and the Mujahideen controlled most of the countryside. In the 21st century it would be coalition troops in cities and the Taliban in the countryside.

The nearly ten year Soviet-Afghan war caused, about one million dead (some estimates are as high as 2 million), and forced about 5 million Afghans to flee as refugees. Other legacies of the war were the more than a million disabled, and at least 10 million landmines scattered around the country.

While the Soviets were fighting the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, Iraq invaded Iran in 1980. That brutal war lasted until 1988, and cost the lives of at least half a million people. The war ended in a stalemate, with both sides claiming victory, and resulted in no territorial changes.

As the Soviets became bogged down in an unwinnable war in Afghanistan they became disillusioned in Babrak Karmal’s ineffective regime. In 1986 they initiated a change and raised Mohammad Najibullah to the leadership, and Karmal moved to live in Moscow. Najibullah started a policy of “national reconciliation”, but it did not work, as the different insurgent groups did not trust the government enough to start serious negotiations. One reason probably was that Najibullah was the former head of the Afghan secret police, and was seen as responsible for the abuses of the previous government.

Soviet withdrawal

Withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan was announced in July 1987, and by February 1989 the last Soviet troops had left the country.

The Soviets still gave aid to the government, but the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, and the aid stopped. The US and others also still supported the Mujahideen, but once the Soviet Union was gone and the Cold War won, the George H. W. Bush administration, and the West in general, lost interest in the country. The Berlin wall had fallen in 1989, and there was a lot to do in re-integrating the Central European countries back into Europe.

The reconstruction of Afghanistan was left to US allies, Pakistan, which had its own agenda, and Saudi Arabia, which naturally preferred groups with an Islamist view.

Besides the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the West was focused on another crisis. Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, and that resulted in the Gulf War. The world concentrated on that conflict, built a military coalition of 35 countries, and pushed Iraq out of Kuwait by the end of February 1991.

The wars in the Balkans started in March 1991, and continued in some form for the next ten years. The West and especially Europeans were focused on the war on their own backyard, and Afghanistan was pushed even further out of the front pages.

Civil war

Najibullah’s government was largely expected to collapse without Soviet troops in the country, but it managed to hold on until April 1992. Once it did collapse, Najibullah took refuge in the UN compound, but was prevented from leaving the country. He resided there until 1996, declined an offer to leave when the Taliban was closing in, and was promptly killed by the Taliban when they took over Kabul.

When Najibullah’s government collapsed, some of the Mujahideen groups agreed to form an interim government, but it did not really work, as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e-Islami and other militant groups did not join the agreement. Soon the situation deteriorated into a civil war, with at least five Mujahideen factions fighting over the control of Kabul.

Most of these groups were supported by foreign states, and at this point some US aid was still channeled into the country, but during the first Clinton administration the aid stopped.

Pakistan supported Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Pashtun Hezb-e-Islami, Iran the Shia and Hazara Hizb-e Wahdat, Saudis supported Sunni and Pashtun Ittehad-e-Islami to promote Wahhabi Islam, and Uzbekistan in turn backed secular(ish) and Uzbek Junbish-i-Milli led by Abdul Rashid Dostum, who defected from Najibullah’s government in 1992. Jamiat-e-Islami led by Burnahuddin Rabbani and militarily by Ahmad Shah Massoud had a mainly Tajik power base, and had been favored by some in the West during the Soviet period. They represented the interim government established by the power sharing agreement.

Hekmatyar’s group started shelling Kabul with artillery and thousands of rockets, and the other groups responded with similar force. The groups fought each other, and formed alliances and broke them when it suited their plans.

Depending on how you define destruction, between a third and half of Kabul was destroyed, thousands died, and half a million refugees fled the city.

The civil war expanded to other cities, and the destruction continued, and resulted in more refugees. The ethnic nature of the different groups also played a part in the atrocities, with groups targeting real or perceived supporters of other groups.

The Taliban

In 1994, Mullah Muhammad Omar founded the Taliban in Kandahar, which drew recruits from the students of the religious schools, the Madrassas, in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Ethnically the students were mainly Pashtun, but also Tajik and Uzbek. The Taliban wanted to establish an Islamic government, and saw the other groups as criminal warlords who did not follow the teachings of Islam.

Meanwhile the West was focused on the Rwandan genocide, and then the subsequent Congo wars, and the ongoing conflict in the Balkans.
The Russians, on the other hand, were busy fighting in Chechnya.

With Pakistani support the Taliban gradually gained more power, and were able to capture Kabul in September 1996. They established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, moved the capital to Kandahar, and ruled according to their interpretation of Sharia law.

Some of the other Mujahideen groups formed the Northern Alliance, and managed to hold on to parts of the country, and about 30% of the country’s population. So, the civil war continued and resulted yet again in more destruction and more refugees.

The Taliban rule and warfare were brutal. They used scorched-earth tactics, razed entire villages, including orchards and fields, and forced people to leave their homes and farms. They forbade women to move freely and forced them to wear the burka, and denied women the right to work or be educated. In addition, they engaged in cultural destruction by destroying historical artifacts and famously destroyed the 6th century Bamiyan Buddhas.

Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda

In 1996 Osama bin Laden returned to Afghanistan from Sudan, established good relations with the Taliban and set up training camps and bases for al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Bin Laden and al-Qaeda were free to operate in the country and continued to raise money from old Soviet era supporters, participated in the civil war, and were able to create new training camps with Pakistani help.

On September 9th 2001, Ahmad Shah Massoud was assassinated, allegedly by al-Qaeda as a favour to the Taliban, and two days later, on September 11th, the World Trade Center towers were hit.

And as they say, the rest is history. The Taliban refused to hand over Osama bin Laden and the George W. Bush administration started the invasion on October 7th, 2001.

… 20 years later

And then, after nearly 20 years of fighting in Afghanistan, after the Iraq war, the killing of Osama bin Laden, the War on Terror, the emergence of the Islamic State, the start of the Syrian Civil War, and the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations, Biden, the fourth US president to deal with this chapter of the conflict, announced the withdrawal of US and allied troops from Afghanistan.

To put it mildly, the withdrawal ended up being chaotic, with panicked crowds at Kabul airport trying desperately to get into the departing planes.

The last US troops left Afghanistan by August 30th, 2021, and Kabul promptly fell to the Taliban.

Then despite promises to the contrary, the Taliban, true to their fundamentalist roots, pushed women out of the workforce, universities and schools.

And as was expected, Western nations mostly suspended humanitarian aid, and the World Bank and the IMF stopped payments.

The result of the collapse of humanitarian aid was that, by the end of the year, the UN estimated that only 2% of the population had enough to eat.

Also, although the war against the West ended with the troop withdrawal, now that the Taliban were the government, they faced an insurgency from the Islamic State Khorasan, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan. And, in some parts of the country, they were also fighting the remnants of the old western trained and equipped Afghan army.

So, now the Taliban are the government and they run the country as they please, following their fundamentalist rules. The international community could do something about this, but since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, everyone has been focused on Ukraine.

History repeats itself, and Afghanistan is pushed out of the news again; I have actually lost count of how many times this has happened.

And like always in these situations, the people of the country will pay the price. And as long as the war in Ukraine continues, they will keep on paying.

To be continued… unfortunately

Collateral damage?

Mar 31st 2022

UN donor conference falls billions short of $4.4bn target to help Afghanistan

Yemen pledging conference: An outcome that will lead to loss of lives

Afghanistan donor conference target $4.4bn - result $2.44bn.

Yemen donor conference target $4.2bn - result $1.3bn.

There are more than 24 million people in Afghanistan, and 23 million in Yemen, who need humanitarian assistance.

There are probably multiple reasons for the missing funds, the actions of the Taliban government, the Ukraine war, and maybe donor fatigue; but we should not forget that if we do not help these countries now, we will be sowing the seeds for the next war or refugee crisis, or both.

Taliban U-turn

Mar 25th 2022 The Guardian

Not exactly unexpected… Despite their promises the Taliban did not let secondary schools for girls to open. The schools were supposed to open last week, but stayed closed, and girls were told to go home. The Taliban also said that the schools would stay shut for now.

The Taliban education ministry said schools would stay shut “until further notice when a comprehensive plan, in accordance with Sharia and Afghan culture, is developed”. Not to be too cynical about it, but I think this translates to “never”.

It looks like it is easier to run an insurgency than a government. Some in the Taliban realise that they need to keep their promises and let girls attend school, to keep international aid flowing into the country. But some stick to their dated ideology and want to keep girls out of education, regardless of the consequences.

Running a government means you need to make compromises. The Taliban would be wise to learn that, they are not an insurgency anymore.

After all, if you are the government of a country, the sky will not fall on your head if you let girls go to school.

Taliban U-turn over Afghan girls’ education reveals deep leadership divisions

Afghanistan’s children

Mar 16th 2022 BBC

“Every few seconds a sick child is brought in to the emergency room of the main hospital in Lashkar Gah.”

The tragedy of Afghanistan's malnourished children

Combine a war in Europe and the 24/7 news cycle, and Afghanistan is not front page news anymore. Neither is the war in Yemen, or in Syria, and when did you last hear about the drought in Ethiopia?

More than 20 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in both Afghanistan and Yemen, 13 million in Syria, 7 million Ethiopia, and countless others in other crises around the world.

The casualties of this Russian war of choice in Ukraine, also include children in Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria, and every other crisis being pushed to the back burner by this war.

We can blame ourselves, or the 24/7 media, both are not wholly innocent here, but the main culprit in this tragedy is Russia. Instead of looking forward and focusing on making the world a better place for people to live in, it is looking back and focusing on grievances arising from a failed communist experiment.

This totally unnecessary war and the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII, will make the other crises in the world worse, by forcing the world to focus on this war. And that will, in the end, most likely result in even more refugees trying to find a place in the world to survive in.

Russia will lose this war, but by accident or by design it has managed to weaponize refugees. If you are cynical enough and do not care about human lives, why not weaponize refugees? Refugees will mostly try to reach ‘western’ countries, so if you can not beat them economically or militarily, why not use their humanity against them and create yet another refugee crisis, and let them deal with it.

I did not think that the world is a perfect place to live in, or is governed by benevolent rulers, but now we have reached yet another low point in our history. While Ukrainian children are dying in Russian shelling and airstrikes, children in Afghanistan are dying from malnutrition, tuberculosis and measles.

Both totally unnecessary and both totally preventable.

Taliban in power

Feb 17th 2022

Here is a view from Mazar-i-Sharif in The Guardian

‘Whatever horrors they do, they do in secret’: inside the Taliban’s return to power

Two excerpts from the piece will give you the picture: this one by a woman in hiding:

“They are the same Taliban, but they are aware that if they try to implement any of their real policies, people will protest and post on social media. In their first government they didn’t care about what the international organisations or the media said, but now they are very sensitive about their public image. Activists and human rights workers are being disappeared in the middle of the night. The Taliban are desperate for recognition from the international community, so whatever horrors they do, they do in secret.”

And this one by the head of the Mazar branch of the Taliban’s religious and moral police:

“In my heart and soul, I love mujahideen of al-Qaida, and I tell my Muslim brother to carry your sword and fight the infidels, and to follow the saying of the prophet, that jihad will continue until judgment day.”

The war is over in Afghanistan?

Feb 8th 2022 - The Guardian

The war in Afghanistan is over, for the West that is (and for now), but the Islamic State and other extremists have not gone away.

Two suspected British Islamic State recruits were seized by the Taliban when they tried to enter the country The Guardian reports.

The men, who were carrying more than £10,000 in cash, military fatigues and night-vision goggles in their bags, were arrested after a tipoff from Uzbekistan, according to a Taliban source with knowledge of the operation.

Now that the Taliban is The Government, and not the Insurgency, they are in a novel position; they have to deal with an insurgency by the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) The Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan.

Maybe it is just me, but this does not look like the war in Afghanistan is over, or will be over for some time.

Afghanistan heading for disaster

Dec 29 2021 The Guardian

Gordon Brown: west is sleepwalking into Afghanistan disaster

Ex-PM warns poverty and starvation mean country is at risk of world’s biggest humanitarian crisis

Dec 30 2021

‘On the brink’: drought and politics leave Afghans fighting famine

Aid collapse after Taliban took control means just 2% of people have enough to eat, UN says

Let me make one thing clear: I do not want to help the Taliban stay in power and run the country and repress the people, I want to help the Afghan people survive.

More than half the population of the country, about 23 million people, are facing hunger in the coming winter months.

Even if we did not care about saving Afghan lives, we should help, if only out of self-interest. If 23 million people face starvation in Afghanistan, there will definitely be millions of desperate refugees, and some of them will eventually end up in the borders of our countries; providing of course that they survive the journey…

Well, what would You do? Stay in your war-torn country and watch your children die of hunger, or try to find a place where you could save them?

We spent a lot of money fighting the war, I think we can afford to spend some more to save the people who suffered from the war.

Giving help means we will gain access to the country and leverage with the Taliban; now is not the time for politics, we have to deal with that later.

And when the time for politics eventually arrives, we should remember what the Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin said about peace negotiations: "You don't make peace with friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies."

Afghanistan, hospitals without medicines

Nov 21 2021 The Guardian

The Taliban is in power in Afghanistan and international donors have pulled out. Hospital staff are not getting paid, and hospitals are running out of medicines and equipment.

And as usual, the ones who suffer the most, are the ordinary Afghans. There is a quote in the piece, by one senior Taliban official in Kabul, which says it all:

“Don’t make the mistake of thinking that I will suffer from sanctions,”… “I will always get my salary, my meals, and money to keep my office warm.”

On Helmand’s bleak wards, dying children pay the price as western aid to Afghanistan is switched off

Winter is approaching, and the situation will only get worse. The question is, should we help the population regardless of the Taliban government, or should we let people die because we do not agree with the Taliban?

If we look at this purely from the outside, I am sure I can intellectually rationalise both options. But from the point of view of the Afghan population, this is only about survival.

The problem with not giving help is that once people die, they will stay dead, you can not resurrect them later when the political situation is more agreeable. Then again I understand the point of not legitimizing the Taliban government.

On the other hand, giving help now, may give the international community some leverage with the Taliban, and will surely be appreciated by the population. And it will also keep more people alive.

Another advantage would be that by giving help, the international community would get better access to the country, and so would be better positioned to see potential issues and plan for the future.

I do not agree with the Taliban, but I do believe in keeping communication channels open and in engaging with adversaries, then you at least know who you are dealing with and you understand them better.

Remember, understanding why someone does what they do, does not mean that you agree with them, but it is necessary to understand them on some level when you eventually enter into negotiations with them.

Taliban rules in Kabul

Aug 24 2021 The Guardian Editorial

The Guardian view on the G7’s great game: the Taliban rules in Kabul

I do not have too much to add to this, I’ll just pick one line which, for me, sums up the “situation”:

Ordinary Afghans will pay the highest price for the west’s defeated ambitions

Having worked in the country as a civilian for a few years, if I had to describe the situation with one word, it would be Absurd.

Kabul fell, and now?

Aug 15 2021 The Guardian

An Afghan woman in Kabul: ‘Now I have to burn everything I achieved’

I do not think this was part of the plan.

A bleak future for Afghanistan

Jul 26 2021 from The Guardian

Afghanistan civilian casualty figures at record high, UN says

Report reveals ‘acute rise’ in deaths and injuries since 1 May as Taliban exploit departure of foreign troops

The heavy toll so far comes largely from battles in rural areas, according to the UN. If the conflict were to spill into more densely populated towns and cities, the consequences could be catastrophic, it says in its report, The Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict.

¿Maybe withdrawing the troops from Afghanistan was the right decisions, but for whom?

Statistics from Afghanistan

Jul 13th, 2021, from the BBC The Visual Journalism Team

Interesting numbers and details from Afghanistan and the war.

In numbers: Life in Afghanistan after America leaves

Costs of the troop withdrawal

This is from The Guardian on Jul, 11th 2021.

The troops have left, and the Taliban is gaining ground. To me this looks like the start of yet another civil war, one that will be long and brutal, and one that will not end well, not that civil wars ever do, but anyway.

There has obviously been a lot of talk about the politics, but this piece focuses on the human cost. Forget the geopolitics. Let’s focus on the human cost of the exit from Afghanistan

I do not have much to add to this, so I’ll let you get along with it.

Afghanistan: What next?

Apr 25th 2021

Two good pieces from the BBC looking at what will happen in Afghanistan after the troops leave.

Afghanistan: 'We have won the war, America has lost', say Taliban

Afghanistan War: How can the West fight terrorism after leaving?

The first one deals with the Taliban, and the second looks at fighting terrorism. Neither paints a rosy picture of the future for Afghanistan.

I guess, it is time to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

One Afghan view on the troop withdrawal

Apr 21 2021

An opinion in The New York Times, by Farahnaz Forotan, an Afghan television journalist who fled the country after her life was threatened.

I Met a Taliban Leader and Lost Hope for My Country

A quote will give you the picture.

“As men continue to bicker over the future and control of Afghanistan, I have already lost my home and my country. I worked in Kabul as a television journalist for 12 years, and finally left in November after threats to my life.

I know how the Taliban plan to shape the future of my country, and their vision of my country has no space for me.”

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PS here is another good piece about the situation by NYT columnist Thomas L. Friedman What Joe Biden and I Saw After the U.S. Invaded Afghanistan