Putin’s Energy Offensive

Apr 6 2023 The New York Times

Putin’s Energy Offensive Has Failed by Paul Krugman

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The Russian “special operation” in Ukraine is not exactly going according to plan.

The initial attempt to capture Kyiv in a blitzkrieg operation, turned into a defeat, and resulted in huge losses.

After a good start, the operation to capture eastern Ukraine also stalled; the Ukrainians fought well and by this time had acquired western weapons.

The Ukrainian counterattacks in the east and south managed to recapture territory, pushed the Russians back, and recaptured Lyman in the East and Kherson in the south.

The ongoing offensive in Bakhmut… staggering losses for little gains… yet another strategic failure.

The ‘energy war’, weaponizing energy and cutting off the supplies of natural gas, did not manage to bring Europe to its knees. On the contrary, Europeans managed to find enough other sources of energy, the sanctions are piling up, and Ukraine is getting western tanks. North Macedonia has donated Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets, and Poland and Slovakia are sending Mig-29s as well.

One of Putin’s reasons for the ‘special operation’ was preventing the expansion of Nato. Sweden and Finland, the historically non-aligned and neutral Nordic countries, applied for Nato membership in May 2022, and Finland joined the alliance on April 4th 2023, and Sweden is expected to follow soon.

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Maybe it would have gone better if Putin had remembered Helmuth von Moltke’s old truth about war,

“No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy”