Potemkin army fighting a war of choice
Mar 8th 2022
Two good articles about the Ukraine war in The New York Times by Paul Krugman.
Nearly two weeks into the Russian Blitzkrieg, the general consensus, in the west that is, seems to be that the war is not exactly going according to the plan. Von Moltke’s old maxim, “no battle plan survives contact with the enemy”, has been proven right, yet again.
Ukraine did not fold like a house of cards, on the contrary the resistance has been fierce. And the EU, US, UK and other democratic governments united in opposition to the war with remarkable speed, and came up with harsh sanctions. Not what anyone was expecting to happen just two weeks ago.
Russia may still win battles and be able to occupy a lot of Ukrainian territory, but in the long run, it looks like they have already lost the war. It may take a long time, but the longer it takes, the worse the effects of the sanctions will be. And as this war drags on, more Russian soldiers will die, be wounded or end up as POWs, and I can not imagine that being a very good way to shore up support for the war back home in Russia.
Also the war has been the main story in the international media from day one, and will probably remain so for as long as the war goes on. If nothing else, the millions of Ukrainian refugees in Europe will keep the war on the front pages for a long time. It is true that Russia is trying to isolate itself from the western media, but some information will always filter through, one way or another.
Ukraine is being destroyed, and will need massive amounts of aid for a long time, but with the imposed sanctions the Russian economy is also collapsing, and aid to Russia is not exactly a very popular idea at the moment.
Though the economic collapse may take some time, the end result will not be very popular on the streets of Russian cities and villages, and that will eventually create more opposition to this war of choice.
Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower Feb 28th 2022
Why China Can’t Bail Out Putin’s Economy Mar 7th 2022
