What if Russia wins?
Dec 21 2024 The Guardian
Updated Jan 7 2025 The Washington Post
What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025
Ukraine can win.
Even if Ukraine loses part of its territory and the people living in the occupied areas, it can still win. I definitely do not prefer this outcome, I would very much like to see Russia pushed back from all Ukrainian territory.
But, if Ukraine, having lost territory, gains enough military assistance to deter Russia in the future, receives large scale investment for infrastructure reconstruction, and sees a clear path to EU membership, it will become a democratic, sovereign and independent nation, which will be part of Europe for generations to come.
That means that ultimately Russia loses and Ukraine wins.
To achieve this, more help to Ukraine NOW, so it can be in a position of strength when the peace negotiations eventually start.
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But, what if?
If peace will be agreed upon on Russian terms, then Ukraine loses and Russia wins.
A defeated Ukraine would mean yet another wave of refugees, growth of anti-western attitudes in Ukraine due to the inadequate military help and the forced peace, which would feed political instability in Ukraine and in Central Europe.
It would also embolden Russia, which would undoubtedly engage in more disinformation and destabilisation, election interference, and other forms of hybrid warfare. And since invading Ukraine worked, why stop there? And what about China and Taiwan?
Another point this piece highlights is nuclear proliferation. Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in return for security assurances, but now one of the ‘security guarantors’ with the nuclear weapons Ukraine gave up, is waging war on Ukraine. No wonder some Ukrainians are now saying “It’s Nato or nukes”, and who would blame them, they are trying to survive, now and in the future.
And if you are a small and/or vulnerable country, what conclusion would you draw if Russia wins the war? If no one will defend you, you will have to do it yourself, and building the bomb is an obvious solution. And that means nuclear proliferation.
When there are more nuclear weapons in the world and more countries possess them, the more likely it will be that someone will use them.
The West has carefully tiptoed on the issue of military aid, afraid of “escalation”, letting Russian sabre rattling with nuclear weapons affect its decisions. But Russian red lines have been crossed many times by now, and the red lines proved to be just rhetorical.
Ukraine is fighting a war it did not start, and Ukrainians are dying in the war, and not just for Ukraine, but for Europe and the World. The West should give Ukraine whatever it needs to win this war.
I’ll end this post with a quote from the piece:
The conclusion is clear, and depressingly familiar. European democracies’ reluctance to pay a high price now means that the world will pay an even higher price later.
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Update - This is from the Editorial Board of The Washington Post on Jan 7 2025
Ukraine risks losing the war. A Trump-imposed bad deal would be worse.
A settlement that dismembers Ukraine and rewards Putin will undermine U.S. credibility.
Ukraine can hardly survive another year of this devastating war. But the haste to find a negotiated settlement could produce a bad one that would reward Mr. Putin for his land grab and guarantee he will launch a new attack for more territory once he has a chance to rebuild his depleted arsenal. A poor settlement would also leave Ukrainians bitter after seeing their homes, schools and factories destroyed, and friends and family members killed. Much of their anger would be directed at the Western backers who betrayed them. This is a fight America, and Ukraine, cannot lose, especially with a bad deal.
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A bad deal would mean that Ukraine loses and Russia wins.
And if Russia wins, it means that the US and Europe will lose as well.
And no matter how bad the Russian military planned and conducted the “special military operation”, a bad deal would mean that Russia’s long term strategy was right all along.
It would prove, to Russia and China among others, that the collective West, the Democracies, do not have the will or the capacity to fight a long war against a determined foe.
And if that is the case… why on earth would you stop with Ukraine?
