Enlarging NATO

Mar 2 2025

For obvious reasons, there has recently been a lot of talk about Ukraine joining NATO.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted Finland and Sweden, both previously neutral countries, to apply for NATO membership. Finland joined in 2023 and Sweden in 2024. Sweden had actually been neutral for over 200 years before joining NATO, that should say something about the situations in Europe now.

Ukraine and NATO discussion will go on for a long time, but what about Ireland, Austria, Malta, and Cyprus? They are all in the EU, but are not full members of NATO. Why not join NATO, especially now that the US seems to have joined the might-makes-right club of countries. The thing is they have historically all subscribed to the principle of neutrality; but so did the aforementioned Finland and Sweden.

I do understand the idea of neutrality, and in principle, it is a very good idea. But in practice, in the real world of 2025, with a major war on European soil, it is really not a feasible position to be in anymore.

Neutrality works when the really big powers, who are not neutral, largely play by the rules, but when they break those rules, neutrality becomes a liability.

Sometimes in life we are faced with a situation that is so far outside the norms that we just have to pick sides. If you have not noticed it yet, Europe is facing one of those moments, the historical situation has changed. So, like it or not, it is time to pick sides.

In addition to the countries mentioned above, Switzerland is also neutral, but probably a slightly different case. Maybe it is because a lot of people, from all over the world, who are in powerful positions, keep their assets in Swiss banks, or use them in their business, and no-one wants to mess with their own money. Also, the country is landlocked, relatively small, and the mountainous terrain makes the country a nightmare for an invading army, and at the same time perfect for a local guerrilla force. So not worth the trouble.

So, what about the four neutral countries who are in the EU but not in NATO?

Cyprus is already on the path to join NATO, but has obvious political and historical complications with the division of the island. And that issue needs to be solved before full membership is possible.

The Ukraine war has changed the security environment, and this presents a good opportunity to solve this decades old dispute between the Greek and the Turkish Cypriot sides. Besides, both Greece and Turkey (or Türkiye as it is officially called) are NATO members, as is the UK, which has two military bases on the island, Akrotiri and Dhekelia.

Cyprus is in a very important strategic location in the eastern Mediterranean; close to the Suez Canal and the Middle East, and the two Russian bases in Syria, Tartus and Khmeimim. Their future is uncertain with the new regime in power in Syria, but Russia is negotiating and will obviously try to keep them, since they are the only bases Russia has in the Mediterranean.

My message today would be, wake up to new reality and smell the great Cypriot coffee, and face the fact that the real enemy is Russia, not the other Cypriots on the island. So, solve the issues, unite the island, and join NATO.

Malta despite being neutral, is in the NATO Partnership for Peace programme, which means it is already leaning towards NATO. It is in the EU, has a democratically elected government, and has historical ties to the UK. It is part of the cultural western world.

The island is in a perfect strategic position in the middle of the Mediterranean, and served as an important base for the UK in WWII. In addition to the Ukraine war, there is the issue of migration from north Africa, and Libya to the south is not exactly a well functioning state at the moment.

Malta is a small country, and needs friends and alliances, that is why it is in the EU. Looking at this from the outside, Malta joining NATO is a no-brainer.

Since the US seems to be withdrawing from the alliance, why not use this opportunity to make a strong statement on the world stage in support of the rule of law and join NATO?

Austria like Malta is also in the NATO Partnership for Peace programme, and has strong ties with the West. Austria’s neutrality is enshrined into its constitution, thanks to the Soviet insistence of neutrality during the talks to end the Allied occupation after WWII.

Austria is in the EU, cooperates with NATO, and participates in peacekeeping operations. Austria’s military expenditure as percentage of GDP, does not reach the level of NATO requirements, it is somewhere around 1%, but not all NATO countries reach that level either at the moment.

Austria is also one of the European countries which still has military conscription, so it has a sizeable army, a functioning training system, and obviously good reserves. Having conscription also means the military is a normal part of society, so Austria is militarily in a better position than some other countries.

Austria’s neutrality is enshrined in the constitution, but constitutions can be amended. If Austria wanted to make a statement for the rule of law, this would be the time to do it.

Ireland not being in NATO is kind of weird, since NATO is short for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and Ireland is an island in the North Atlantic.

For historical reasons Ireland has had a traditional policy of military neutrality, it even stayed neutral in WWII. But today Ireland is in the NATO Partnership for Peace programme, and in 2024, joined NATO's Individually Tailored Partnership Programme as well. This was done to increase its capabilities at protecting undersea infrastructure, and countering potential threats to it.

Talking about potential threats, the Russian “oceanic research vessel” Yantar, just last November was escorted out of the Irish sea from an area which has energy and internet infrastructure on the seafloor. And this was not the first time Russia was looking for vulnerabilities in European infrastructure, and it will definitely not be the last.

Ireland’s military is small, and has traditionally focused on protecting fisheries, peacekeeping operations, assisting the police, and in other civil defence tasks such as search and rescue, assisting in natural disasters, and maintaining essential services.

Ireland’s Air Corps and its Naval Service are geared towards patrolling and protecting its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone. They are not a Blue-water navy, and the Air Corps does not have fighter jets, so they cannot defend Irish airspace in the usual sense.

But, not having a huge navy or modern fighter jets is not as bad as it sounds. The good thing about not having a large navy or an air force, is that you do not have to pay for maintaining them. And you do not have legacy issues with ageing equipment.

Drone technology has changed the way wars will be fought, and if I was upgrading the Irish military today, I would concentrate on all kinds of drones and drone related technology. Not only would I support Ukraine, I would also cooperate with them, so they could sell their expertise and their drone technology to others. They do have the best expertise in drone warfare at the moment.

Upgrading a military obviously takes a lot of money and resources, but building and maintaining a military which is heavily reliant on drone technology is much cheaper than building and maintaining a purely traditional one. Also drones are based on IT, and Ireland has the IT industry which is needed to develop the drones of the future.

Obviously Ireland would need fighter jets and naval forces for protection, but those could be provided by other NATO countries, after all NATO is an alliance, and that is what alliances do. But to get that protection, Ireland would have to join NATO.

Ireland supports Ukraine, and has a long history of supporting a Palestinian State. Now that the US seems to turn inward, does not push for the two state solution in Palestine anymore, and is talking about stopping aid to Ukraine; what would be a better time for Ireland to make a statement of where it stands on these issues and join NATO?

Obviously it is up to the individual countries to decide if and when to join NATO or other alliances, it is just that Europe, and the World, are now at a crossroads, and it is time to make fundamental decisions on where you stand in this world.

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Update March 3rd The New York Times

A Thousand Snipers in the Sky: The New War in Ukraine

“Drones … inflict about 70 percent of all Russian and Ukrainian casualties…”

“Now, drones rule the battlefield. They have far surpassed conventional arms as the war's most lethal weaponry.”