Brexit regret
May 17th, 2020 - during the Covid-19 pandemic
Politicians have always given comedians, cartoonists and satirists good material, and the present is no exception. We have the Brexit saga, which is a gift that keeps on giving. There is also of course the presidency on the other side of the Atlantic, but can't fit them both into one text, way too much material. Brexit will have to do for now, and it is approaching yet another deadline.
Let me “briefly” refresh your memory on this saga.
David Cameron the Prime Minister (remember him?) promised a referendum on should the UK stay in the EU or not, and that referendum was held in June 2016. Cameron was for remaining in the EU, was sure the Remain side would win, and promptly lost to the Leave side, who did not expect to win, and were totally unprepared for it. Anyway, the next day Cameron resigns, and Theresa May becomes PM.
And we get the classic Brexit means Brexit. They spend the next six months debating what that really means; Irish backstop, financial institutions, EU citizens in UK and vice versa, immigration, customs union, regulatory alignment, no-deal or trade-deal, or Canada-style or Norway, and so on.
In December they vote on May's plan and officially notify the EU on March 29th. In Brexit jargon they invoke Article 50, and begin a two year withdrawal process. May calls a snap general election for June 2017, and thinks she will win, and of course loses the majority.
UK and EU negotiate and negotiate, and ministers resign and are replaced, and finally in November 2018 they come up with a Withdrawal Agreement. All 27 other EU members endorse it. The UK parliament rejects it in January, and again in March. Theresa May then asks the EU for an extension, gets one until May 22nd, and the parliament rejects the agreement the third time.
The original Glorious Brexit Day of March 29th 2019 comes and goes, and even before the second Brexit day arrives, May asks for another extension from the EU and gets one until October.
Since the UK is still in the EU, they have to hold European Parliament elections in May. They do and the “winners” are the Brexit party, and the Anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour do not do so well, and the next day May resigns.
A Conservative party leadership contest takes place and Boris Johnson becomes PM in July. The next day, with the October deadline approaching, the parliament promptly starts summer recess until Sep 3rd. Johnson wants to keep the parliament from interfering, and decides to “prorogue” it in September. Which means that the parliament would not really have time to debate Brexit before the October deadline.
The parliament comes back to work, passes a motion for an emergency debate, and the next day passes a bill that requires Johnson to ask for an extension to the Brexit deadline, if the parliament does not approve a withdrawal agreement or a No-deal-Brexit. Later the same day, Johnson proposes to call a general election in October, but parliament rejects it.
A few days later Government again tries to get a general election in October, but is rejected again. Parliament is prorogued and the Party conference season starts. Also, John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, who gave us a lot of laughs with his unique style, announces that he will resign.
Two weeks later the Supreme Court of the UK rules that basically the prorogation is unlawful, and the parliament is called back the next day. The Government proposes to replace the Irish backstop with regulatory alignment and a customs border.
The parliament is prorogued for about a week, this time lawfully, and comes back to work. The UK and the EU agree on the new Withdrawal agreement, but the parliament first passes an amendment and then approves it and the amendment. This in turn kicks in the bill they passed in September, and requires Johnson to ask for yet another extension to Brexit.
In September Johnson said “I’d rather be dead in a ditch” than ask for an extension, but has to, and he writes two letters: one unsigned which asks for an extension until January, and one signed which says that the extension would be a mistake.
The Government tries to have a new vote on the withdrawal, but the Speaker refuses, since it has already been voted on during this parliamentary session. Even the UK parliament has rules they have to follow, does not always look like it though.
In the background there is a running lawsuit in Edinburgh about writing the letter to the EU asking for an extension, which also creates some weird and funny moments. The petitioners ask for a ruling that if Johnson does not write the letter, the court should write it itself. Also the court can not decide the case because as of yet “the PM has not acted unlawfully” and “the situation remains fluid”. Then when Johnson writes the letters, they decide that the first letter fulfills the requirements, but the second negates the first. And the court of course refuses to dismiss the case.
In late October the Government introduces a bill, which is passed, but the timeline to get all the stages of the bill completed in three days and before the current Brexit day Oct 31st is rejected.
The EU agrees to extend the Brexit deadline to Jan 31st 2020.
The same day the Government loses a vote to have an election on Dec 12th, withdraws the bill with the rejected timeline, and next day introduces a new short election bill. They have a Fixed-term Parliaments Act in the UK, but this bill somehow gets around it, and is passed.
The election is held and the Conservatives win a majority, the Withdrawal agreement is passed in parliament and the UK leaves the EU at 11.00 pm on Jan 31st 2020. A Glorious day with Union Jacks and I Got Brexit Done coffee mugs and tea towels and the like.
And on Feb 1st, to the hard part, the negotiations about the future relationship with the EU. The UK had to withdraw from the EU before the trade negotiations could start, because when it was in the EU it had a veto right, you can't be on both sides of the negotiation table, especially with a veto right.
So, now there is a transition period, which ends on Dec 31st 2020. This transition period can be extended for two years, but the extension should be made by a legally binding deadline of July 1st, and by a UK-EU joint committee.
The EU has said from the start that negotiating a trade deal in such a short time frame is difficult, and they have also implied that they would be open to an extension if the UK applies for one. The UK of course said that it will not apply for an extension, and would say “no” even if the EU asked for one.
The negotiations start, and then the pandemic hits, which means no face-to-face negotiations, only video conferencing.
As of today there is six weeks left until the extension deadline, and the latest from the negotiations is “very little progress” and “very disappointing”.
Regardless of how this chapter of the saga ends: in a trade deal or an extension or a no-trade-deal-brexit, this saga will still generate a lot of material for cartoonists and comedians.
Then again who needs comedy, when reality is this funny, at least from outside the UK.
My biggest regret regarding Brexit, besides the obvious stupidity of the whole thing, is that Blackadder and Yes Minister aired years ago. I wish both shows were on now and could give their takes on this saga.
Blackadder, Baldrick, Brexit and the rest of the crew. Maybe Brexit just needed a cunning plan to work. Gods of Comedy really are cruel, they gave us both Blackadder and Brexit, but not at the same time.
And Yes Minister, a series that would have suited Brexit absolutely perfectly. Minister Hacker trying to get Brexit done, Bernard trying to help him on the way, and Sir Humphrey right at home with all the Brexit jargon and the archaic parliamentary rules. But it was not meant to be. Though the writers gave us a taste in The Guardian after the referendum.
Well, you can't have your cake and eat it too. We have the original Blackadder and Yes Minister, let's be happy with that. And remember, most likely we will still have years of Brexit to enjoy.
And finally and fittingly, for all the present and future participants in all the negotiations, twists and the cunning plans in the Brexit saga still to come; quoting Captain Blackadder as they are about to go over the top, into no man's land, to face the German machine guns: “Good luck everyone“.
