Leaving Afghanistan?

Mar 28th 2021

The US signed a deal with the Taliban on Feb 29th, 2020, which says, among other things, that the US should withdraw all military troops from Afghanistan by May 1st, 2021.

So, should you honor the deal and pack up your gear and go, or should you stay, and keep some troops in the country?

(Disclosure, I spent a few years in Afghanistan, in civilian projects, in 2010-12, so I am either biased or informed on this.)

Yes, it is nearly 20 years since Oct 7, 2001, when the Afghanistan invasion began.

Yes, the war has cost about $2 trillion, depending on how you count. A lot of money regardless of how you count.

Yes, there have been about 2,400 US casualties and over 20,000 US wounded. (And more than 1,000 coalition fatalities.)

Yes, Osama bin Laden was killed nearly ten years ago.

Yes, there is a Western aligned government in Afghanistan.

Yes, a lot of money has been spent in aid and development, and some of the money has just disappeared.

All good reasons to declare “Mission Accomplished” and go home, and let the Afghans take it from here.

But, the last time the West was involved in Afghanistan was during the Soviet occupation of the country in 1979-89. When the Soviets withdrew their troops, and the Soviet Union collapsed a few years after, the west kind of lost interest in Afghanistan, and after a brutal civil war the Taliban eventually emerged as the victor. And they were not exactly benevolent rulers.

Are we willing to let the Taliban repeat history and erase 19 years of development in the country, not to mention the casualties and the wounded? Maybe they will act differently this time, but I for one would not bet on that.

And Osama bin Laden is dead, and Al-Qaeda is diminished, but it is not dead, and its ideology is still spreading. Do we want to give it another chance to thrive, or do we want to keep squeezing its ability to operate?

If you take a longer view on this, why on earth would you leave now? The US financed the development of the Helmand Valley in the 1950’s and 60’s, and the dams built then still provide irrigation to the area. And through the 1980’s the US, among other countries, assisted the Mujahideen in fighting the Soviets.

So, why leave now in 2021, after 19+ years of active war, when you have been in the country already in the 1950’s? Why not stay this time, and finish the job, and try to not repeat the mistakes of the past?

I am under no illusion that peace will come quickly, it will be a generational project, and will require a firm commitment to stay in the country until the project is finished. And that means both effective military and civilian presence; both security and development.

The basic Taliban mindset is best summed up by the expression attributed to a captured Taliban fighter: “You have the watches. We have the time.” If the Taliban know that the troops will leave one day, they will just wait for that day, they will have no need to make, or keep, deals with the government.

Their thinking is, rightly: “We Afghans fought the Soviets for ten years, the warlords for another ten, and the Americans and other infidels for twenty, what is another year or two in a struggle this long?” They have no reason to change, they will just wait for their day to arrive.

But, if they are faced with a practically permanent military presence and continuing development work, which means changing society, they will have to start adapting to a new reality. Some of them surely will not change and will continue the fight, but some will eventually accept the new reality and work with the government. It will take time, maybe a generation, and there will be casualties, and as always, it will cost a lot of money. But the alternative is risking all the development done since 2002, and wasting the lost lives and the treasure.

An Afghan boy or a girl born in 1995, would have been seven years old in 2002 when the Taliban was driven from power. If they were lucky, they would have gone to school and then to university, and would now probably have their first job in whatever field they studied. And, if they had not already, they would be looking to get married and starting a family. And they would obviously want to raise their family in a society at peace, and give their children a future without war.

Are we really willing to risk that?

Are we willing to risk another Taliban government?

And are we really willing to abandon the Afghans who fought with us, again?

ps. The New York Times Mar 30th 2021; The Taliban Think They Have Already Won, Peace Deal or Not